Thailand's last result paints them weaker than they really are going into this final. The 2-1 loss to the Philippines came with eight or nine changes, made on purpose to keep the starters fresh. Their real team comes back rested, and Indonesia may be without the player who has been creating most of their chances. I expect a closer final than the home crowd and the group-stage scorelines suggest.
Anthony Hudson didn't hide what he was doing against the Philippines. Thailand had already booked their place in the final after beating Vietnam, so he rested the core of his side. Chanathip, Sarach Yooyen and Nicholas Mickelson started on the bench. He said the whole point was to have a fresh group for the final.
When that first-choice group played, Thailand beat Pakistan 4-0 and Vietnam 2-0. That Vietnam win stands out, because Vietnam beat Indonesia 3-0 back in August.
Indonesia's numbers look big, but a lot of that is the 9-2 win over Bangladesh and a 2-0 over Singapore. Against Malaysia, the one solid defence they've faced at this tournament, they couldn't score and drew 0-0. Their recent bad days have mostly come against organised teams: 0-3 against Vietnam, 1-1 away at Singapore, 0-1 against Bulgaria.
Then there's Ole Romeny, who set up four goals against Bangladesh. He trained apart from the group before the final, and John Herdman said it isn't yet clear whether he can play. Without him, it's harder for Indonesia to unlock a fresh Thai midfield built around Chanathip and Sarach. Thailand have also been tough on the road lately, with three wins and a draw in their last four away games.
