Two games where the public picture comes from a margin the matchup itself does not support. Dallas's heavy opening loss was built on Houston's offensive rebounding and steals, two things Indiana does not do at that level. In the World Series opener, two rested bullpens and short starters point to a tight, low-scoring game decided by a run or two.
Indiana vs Dallas. Dallas lost by 18 at Houston, but Houston rebounded 40% of its own misses and forced 21 turnovers with 11 steals. Indiana is a different team: it grabbed about 20% of its misses at New Orleans and usually gets 6 to 9 steals a game. Dallas's absences (Lively, Aldama, Martin) were all out at Houston, so nothing new has been added. Dallas's best counter is the free-throw line. Flagg drew 13 attempts in the opener, and Indiana committed 26 fouls and sent New Orleans to the line 37 times. Added up, I have Indiana winning by a normal home margin, not a blowout. That's why I'm siding with Dallas to stay within reach.
Milwaukee vs Tampa Bay. Misiorowski has not finished five innings in either postseason start and comes in after 11 days off. Martinez throws strikes, with 26 walks in 180 innings, which takes away Milwaukee's favourite route of walks and traffic. After that, both pens are fresh. Milwaukee's home wins in its last ten were mostly one-run games, and after its bye the offence scored 3 and 4. Home teams also do not bat in the ninth with a lead, and a walk-off ends the game by one. That's why I'm siding with Tampa Bay to keep it within a run.
