Both of these games come down to the possession columns, not the names on the injury list. Oklahoma City has lost the guards who created its turnovers and the big who protected its rim. That takes away its two best weapons against a Houston side built on steals and second chances. In Changwon, LG's three-point volume and ball security run straight into the column where Wonju DB give up the most.
Houston vs Oklahoma City. The Thunder's early wins came with Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Wallace and Caruso. That group forced 26 turnovers against the Clippers and 22 against Denver, with 15 and 12 steals. In their current roster state they managed 3 steals against Phoenix and 4 in Dallas, and Holmgren is now out for weeks. Houston's identity is length and activity: 11-12 steals in most games, 17 and 20 offensive rebounds in the two meetings with Dallas, and heavy free-throw volume.
The key matchups are Sengun, back from his back soreness as the post hub, against Hartenstein without Holmgren beside him. Then Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. and Eason loading up on Gilgeous-Alexander and Ajay Mitchell, who now carry the whole Thunder half-court offence. Houston is on the second night of a back-to-back without VanVleet and Sheppard. That thin ball-handling would have been a problem against the old Thunder guards, but not against the pressure this roster has shown. Houston also already won a second-night road game without VanVleet in Atlanta.
Both teams shot badly from three in their last game: Houston 7 of 29 in Dallas, the Thunder 5 of 32 there. At their own normal shooting, Houston's Dallas game turns into a narrow win, even without Sengun. The Thunder's stays a loss. The likely shape is a Houston lead built on the glass in the first half, with the Thunder needing a big late night from their two creators. That's why I'm with Houston to win.
LG vs Wonju DB. LG have played all nine games on the road so far, and this is their home opener after nearly six days of rest. They live on the arc, with 26-36 attempts at about 37%, and hardly ever turn the ball over. DB without Ellenson allow around 30 threes a night and have shot about 31% themselves, with nights of 13 of 38 and 7 of 27 around one hot outlier. The first meeting showed the shape: LG 12 of 26 from deep against DB's 5 of 22, and an LG road win over a full-strength DB.
DB's best route is inside. Hammonds and the new temporary import Allen Williams attack LG's soft two-point defence and the glass, especially if Asem Marei gets into foul trouble. But Williams has played one game in the system, DB are on their third game in five days after losing in Busan the day before, and LG keep opponents' three-point volume low. That's why I'm siding with LG to win this one at home.
