[2026-27 NBA] Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns preview and analysis Tip-off: November 3, 03:00 UTC
The Golden State Warriors lost their previous meeting with the Phoenix Suns while six of their regulars were out. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are expected back this time, giving Phoenix a different perimeter attack to handle.
1. Game overview and team form
Steve Kerr has used six different starting lineups in the Warriors’ seven games this season, while keeping their ball movement and three-point attack intact. Golden State are averaging 41.4 three-point attempts and 16.6 makes per game. Against the Los Angeles Lakers, they trailed by 23 after the first quarter, then De’Anthony Melton came off the bench to score 13 in the second and help the team’s perimeter shooting bring them level by halftime (NBC Sports Bay Area, October 31). Even during their four-game winning streak, though, the Warriors have averaged 16.7 turnovers per game. Turnovers in the second half let the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Clippers turn games Golden State had been leading into close contests.
Curry and Green are expected to play after sitting out against the Clippers (Blue Man Hoop, November 1 local time). Curry is the team’s main scorer, while Green organizes the offense with his passing. Gui Santos, a recent starter, will miss the game with left knee tendinitis (CBS Sports, November 1 local time). Al Horford has also been reported as likely to sit as part of back-to-back management, though he has not received an official status. Even with Kerr bringing the two veterans back after giving them time off, Yaxel Lendeborg and Georges Niang could see more minutes at forward and in the frontcourt.
Devin Booker creates offense for Phoenix, with bench guard Collin Gillespie sharing the ball-handling duties. Oso Ighodaro’s return gives the Suns another center option, but without Mark Williams they have been outmatched on the glass and in free-throw attempts. Against the Denver Nuggets, Phoenix led after the first quarter but gave up 13 three-pointers in the first half. Coach Jordan Ott also pointed to stretches when the team’s defensive execution broke down after the game (Arizona Sports, October 30 local time). Dillon Brooks is expected to play after being ejected in that game, with no further discipline announced. His availability will affect who becomes Booker’s leading scoring option behind him.
2. Matchup analysis
The first key matchup is Golden State’s off-ball perimeter attack against Phoenix’s perimeter defense. In the four games tracked, the Suns have allowed 17.0 three-pointers per game. If Curry uses screens to draw defensive attention, Melton, Brandin Podziemski and Niang can get open looks from the perimeter. Melton hit six threes against the Clippers. To contain this attack, Phoenix must cut down on the lapses in off-ball coverage it showed against Denver. If the Suns hold up on the perimeter, they can also turn the Warriors’ frequent turnovers into scoring chances.
The other matchup is in the paint. Lendeborg scored 37 against the Clippers by driving past smaller defenders or shooting from outside when they backed off (Golden State of Mind, November 2). If Phoenix’s wing defenders follow him into the paint, the Suns will have a harder time covering the perimeter. If they stay outside, Maluach and Ighodaro will have to protect the paint for longer stretches. Still, with Santos out and Horford potentially resting, we cannot assume Golden State will control the boards as it did against Minnesota.
Managing the second half will matter even if the score opens up. Golden State have recently let opponents back into games after turnovers piled up while they were leading. Phoenix can exploit that weakness if Booker and Brooks score early and the Suns maintain their perimeter defense in the second quarter. If Phoenix’s perimeter defense falters, the Warriors can keep scoring through Melton even while their starters rest.
3. Verdict and conclusion
If Curry and Green play as expected, we expect Golden State’s perimeter attack to put distance between the teams from the first half against Phoenix’s defense. Green’s return should also affect how the Warriors organize their defense when Booker is creating offense. Phoenix’s 131 points in the previous meeting came in a game when six Golden State regulars were out.
The market favors Golden State but expects a narrow margin. We expect a wider gap because Phoenix have recently struggled not only on the perimeter but also on the boards and in free-throw attempts, while Golden State have had games with scoring from the bench. We also expect a high-scoring game, given both teams’ volume from three and the fast-break chances created by turnovers. If both Curry and Green are out, though, Phoenix’s chances improve as they did in the previous meeting.
[Final picks · By market · Based on Betman lines] Moneyline: Win. Phoenix have seen their perimeter defense break down in all three losses, and they now face Golden State’s off-ball three-point attack, reinforced by the expected returns of Curry and Draymond Green. Handicap -4.5: Win. The factors that could create separation, perimeter defense and free-throw disadvantage, have shown up repeatedly across four games. Golden State also have the edge in the bench matchup, which should help them maintain the lead even when the starters sit. Over/Under 228.5: Over. Both teams attempt more than 40 threes, and Golden State’s turnovers and steals create transition chances at both ends. Phoenix’s perimeter defense has not been able to stop Golden State’s three-point shooting.
