[26-27 NBA] Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans Analysis and Preview Tip-off: November 3, 01:00 UTC
The Memphis Grizzlies’ six-game winning streak meets the New Orleans Pelicans’ recent two-game run. One side scores through three-point attempts from several players; the other creates chances with pressure defense.
1. Game overview and team form
Coach Tuomas Iisalo has spread the scoring around since Ja Morant’s departure (Sports Mole, October 30). The Memphis Grizzlies have attempted 38.2 threes per game, and bench players account for about 40% of their scoring. When Ty Jerome missed the previous game, Cam Spencer started at point guard and recorded 13 assists with no turnovers against the Sacramento Kings. Iisalo has urged Spencer to shoot confidently (Hoops Rumors, November 1). Jerome is back after being removed from the injury report, and Spencer returns to the bench (FantasyPros, November 1).
It is hard to read too much into the six-game streak as a measure of the gap between these teams. Four of those wins came against the Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings, and the road win over the Golden State Warriors was by three points. Still, against the Portland Trail Blazers, Memphis led after a 58-58 first half by putting together a scoring run in the third quarter, and held balanced advantages in rebounds, assists, turnovers and threes. Quinten Post is questionable with a right ankle sprain. If he is out, Zach Edey and Isaiah Stewart will need to handle more of the backup minutes inside (Sports Mole, October 30).
The New Orleans Pelicans create chances with the defensive pressure coach Jamahl Mosley has emphasised (SI, November 1). They scored 34 points off turnovers against the Atlanta Hawks (NOLA.com, November 1). Zion Williamson attacks the paint, and the team attempts 30.5 free throws per game, but its 28.3 three-point attempts are fewer than Memphis’ total. If Dejounte Murray returns, Herbert Jones, who started during the recent two-game winning streak, could move to the bench (NBC Sports, November 1). Murray’s return would help with ball handling, but it would also change a recent lineup that has paired Jeremiah Fears and Jones.
2. Matchup analysis
The key question is whether New Orleans can use its pressure to cut down Memphis’ three-point attempts. The Pelicans average 13.7 steals per game. Memphis, meanwhile, has a 10.8% turnover rate over four games, measured against estimated possessions, compared with 13.4% for its opponents. With Jerome back, Spencer, Cameron Boozer and he can share the ball-handling duties. If New Orleans takes the ball away early as it did against Atlanta, Memphis will get fewer outside looks. If the Grizzlies break the pressure, they can create three-point chances for several players.
The gap in three-point volume stands out. Memphis has attempted 38.2 threes per game over five games, while New Orleans has allowed opponents 37.7 per game over six. The Pelicans will need to make up for their lower three-point output with Williamson’s work in the paint, free throws and points off turnovers. They have allowed only 11.5 made threes per game, though, so Memphis matching its usual attempt volume does not mean it will shoot at its usual percentage. New Orleans is shooting 31% from three this season (SI, November 1).
The paint is where New Orleans has a chance to narrow the gap. Memphis allows opponents 27.3 free-throw attempts per game. If Post is out, Edey and Stewart will have to manage their fouls and minutes while defending Williamson. Against the Denver Nuggets, the Pelicans went 7-for-30 from three and could not complete the comeback. If their outside shots are again contained, they will struggle to make up the difference with pressure and scoring inside, leaving them with little answer to a Memphis scoring run in the second half.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We expect Memphis to win and pull away. New Orleans can keep the game close with pressure, but Memphis has shared ball-handling duties among several players, and Jerome is back (FantasyPros, November 1). When the Pelicans fail to force turnovers, they will have to keep pace with Memphis’ high volume of threes through paint scoring and free throws.
We put more weight on the matchup between New Orleans’ pressure defense and Memphis’ distributed ball handling than on the edge the market has given the Grizzlies for their six-game streak. The Pelicans have won their last two, but Murray’s return could send Jones to the bench (NBC Sports, November 1), and early-season assessments of a lineup featuring Fears and Murray together were poor (Yahoo Sports, October 31). If Post is out, Memphis will have fewer backup options inside, and Williamson keeps drawing free throws, the margin we expect could shrink.
[Final picks · by market · Betman release] Moneyline: Win, New Orleans’ main path to victory is forcing turnovers, which is less likely to work against Memphis when three players share the ball-handling duties. Handicap -5.5: Win, the gap in three-point attempts should build throughout the game, and New Orleans turnovers will lead to extra points. Total 236.5: Under, New Orleans takes fewer threes and could see its scoring drop sharply if it gets stuck in the half court. Memphis is also likely to shoot below its usual high three-point percentage against this opponent.
