Both of these matches come down to who has to carry the ball and who gets to run. At Turf Moor, Wolves will have the ball without either of their senior strikers, against a Burnley side that creates best when someone else has possession. In Kiel, a home side that keeps the ball but rarely hurts anyone meets a Hertha team built to strike on the break. In each case the roles fit together in a way the table does not show.
Burnley v Wolves. Burnley sit low in the table, but their best football this season has come when the opponent pushes up: Bruun Larsen and Ramazani broke freely against Charlton and at Watford. Wolves are the side that carries by default, and their problem was already finishing, with only three shots on target from nineteen against Bolton and from seventeen at Sheffield United. Now Armstrong, who started every recent league game, has been ruled out by Peixoto, and Jimenez is out too, leaving a teenager with only late cameo minutes at the top. On Burnley's side, Ekdal replaces Ahmedhodzic and has already played this season. Burnley have scored in sixteen of their last twenty, and their usual game is to score first and get pulled back, which points to a draw or a narrow home result. That's why I'm siding with Burnley at home.
Kiel v Hertha. Kiel under Walter average well over half the ball, yet they have seven goals in seven league games and managed no shots on target at Braunschweig. Hertha are unbeaten in seven and happy without possession, still producing around nineteen shots a game through Brekalo and Thorsteinsson on the flanks. Kiel's back line is missing Rosenboom and Roslyng, and their full-backs push high, which leaves exactly the channels Hertha attack. Hertha's goals tend to arrive after the hour, and they showed at Braunschweig that going behind does not end them. Kiel's most natural home result has been a draw. That's why I'm siding with Hertha away from home.
