Greece have already shown how to handle Germany: give them the ball, protect the middle, and make every chance a hard one. That 1-0 in Augsburg wasn't a smash and grab. Germany had 76% of the ball and still produced little. I think the same shape works again in a packed Toumba, against a German side still being put together.
The German squad needs explaining. Klopp took over after the World Cup exit and has been alternating two separate groups. The players who drew in Amsterdam and lost to Greece have gone home, and a second group beat Serbia and now travels to Thessaloniki. Wirtz, Woltemade and Karl give it plenty of quality, but this squad is playing its first away game together under a coach in his fourth match.
The Serbia win made the numbers look huge, with 32 shots and almost four expected goals. Serbia, though, have lost five in a row and managed just one shot. The previous away game was very different: in Amsterdam, Germany were outshot 22 to 10.
Greece sit top of the group with 7 points from 3 games. They also drew 2-2 with the Netherlands at home while holding only 29% of the ball, so they're comfortable without it. Tzolis is out injured and Pelkas comes in. A draw keeps them top, so they don't need to open up and chase.
