We saw this exact matchup a week ago, and it was a grind. Greece sat deep, let Germany have the ball and won 1-0 with very little of it. Now both sides are missing key attackers: Tzolis for Greece, and Musiala, Havertz and Gnabry for Germany. I expect the rematch at Toumba to look a lot like the first one.
The numbers from the 1-0 tell the story. Germany had 76% of the ball and 16 shots but only around 1.3 expected goals, while Greece needed just one moment from about 0.7. Ivan Jovanovic's side stayed in their shape, crowded the box and made Germany go around them.
Greece play the same way against big teams. They had only 29% of the ball against the Netherlands, and that game was settled by chances on the break. Tzolis is the man who usually carries those breaks, and he's out with a thigh strain after that game. Without him, Greece have less of a release valve.
Germany looked lethal in beating Serbia 2-0, with 32 shots, but Serbia came in on five straight defeats and barely touched the ball. Greece's block is a different problem altogether. Without Musiala and Havertz to unlock it, I expect another patient, tight game, with the group leaders more than happy to keep it that way in front of a full house.
