This match is about size against disruption. Golden State come in with no true centre available, and their one box with this roster showed what happens when a real big gets going against them. Memphis bring the biggest centre in the league and a rebounding power forward, and their weak point is ball security. The game turns on whether Golden State's hands can steal back what they give up on the glass.
Golden State win through Curry's gravity, Draymond Green's passing and defensive chaos, and forced turnovers: they had 15 steals at the Lakers. But with Bassey sidelined and Porzingis away, Green, Horford and two-way player Ike covered every centre minute in the opener. The Lakers' centre went 12-of-12, Golden State lost the boards 36-43, and the second and third quarters went 35-68 against them.
Memphis are built the other way. Edey and Boozer won the glass 55-38 against Utah, with 15 offensive rebounds, and the Grizzlies have the deeper bench in Grant, G. Jackson, Pippen Jr., Spencer and Post. Their problem is turnovers, 15 against Utah and more in preseason, and that is exactly the channel Golden State attack.
The absences shape it. Butler and Moody are out, which thins the wings around Curry, and Podziemski missed the opener with a sore back. Bassey has knee tendinopathy, and even if he plays he is a backup-level centre, so the gap shrinks in his minutes but stays open.
The first quarter should be close, with Curry and Green on the floor. The swing should come in the second and third quarters, when Golden State's thin bench faces Memphis's depth and Edey's second stint. That is the window where the Warriors collapsed in their opener.
Golden State's pressure is real. But the size gap is there for all 48 minutes, while the turnovers need Memphis to have a bad handling night. That's why I'm siding with Memphis to win outright on the road.
