Al Nassr arrive in Tashkent as the better attacking side, but without the player who has been turning their wins into big margins. Their heavy scorelines have mostly been built at home, while their away form is far more ordinary. Pakhtakor, meanwhile, have been at their most dangerous when they are not asked to carry the ball. This looks like a match that stays close for a long time.
Al Nassr's game runs through Felix, Mane and Angelo feeding a finisher. Felix had six assists across their five recent wins. They keep the ball and hold a high line, and opponents keep getting caught offside against it, which also shows those opponents can reach it. The cost is that Al Nassr concede: they let in at least one goal in eight of their last ten. At home they have won six of six and scored 16, but away they have one win, one draw and two defeats, including a 0-4 at Al Ain in this competition with their main names on the pitch.
Pakhtakor's role split is the key to the home side. With less of the ball against Al Qadsiah they had 19 shots, 14 of them inside the box. Carrying the ball at Al Quwa, they had just one shot on target and lost to a set piece. Al Nassr should have more of the ball here, which hands Pakhtakor the role they prefer. All three of their league-phase games have finished within a goal, and they have lost by two or more only once in their last 20.
The main matchup is Felix, Mane and Angelo against a back line that has lost Zaid Tahseen, who left the Neftchi game in an ambulance and has not been seen in the match rows since. That hurts, especially on set pieces, although Pouraliganji and Abdumajidov have already played together and allowed little at Al Quwa. At the other end, Flamarion, Resan and Aymen Hussein will test that high line, and Bento has conceded five goals from nine shots on target over his last three games.
Ronaldo not travelling is the big change. He scored in all four of Al Nassr's recent wins by two or more, and his goals were often the margin itself rather than just the winner. Al-Hamdan is a real number nine with recent starts, and others scored most of the goals in the last five results, so the attack is still alive. What has gone is the man who stretches a lead. Coman's absence means much less, because he has been out since mid-October, and the Martinez and Al-Amri pairing has already won at Al-Faisaly without Simakan.
Expect Al Nassr to see more of the ball and a tight first hour, with Felix or Mane the likeliest source of the first goal. After the hour, Pakhtakor's bench becomes the story. Khamdamov, Chinedu and Bozorov have been arriving in the phase when this team scores, as the late goals against Al Ahli and Al Qadsiah showed. If Pakhtakor are still within a goal then, Al Nassr have to manage the game without their closer.
That's why I'm siding with Pakhtakor at home. Al Nassr may well be the better team in this match, but pulling clear on the road without Ronaldo is what the rows show least of, and this Pakhtakor side has made a habit of staying in games.
