This first leg should turn on the first pass out of midfield and who wins the next ball after a cross or corner. Fluminense have a familiar route down the right, while Palmeiras can create from quick recoveries and restarts. Their August meeting showed both patterns in the same game. Possession alone is unlikely to explain which attack gets the cleaner looks.
Fluminense's Ganso and Martinelli can release Guga and Canobbio into the right channel, with Hulk attacking the delivery and Serna or Savarino adding a different run into the box. That flank produced Hulk's equaliser and the late crossing sequence in the August meeting. Palmeiras' likely three defender shape gives Piquerez room to advance, while Arias and Giay can turn a recovered ball into a fast attack. Gómez and López also make the first touch and loose ball at corners important.
Cano is unavailable, so Fluminense's right side has a different target from the August winner; Hulk, Ganso and the wide runners supply the current route. Palmeiras are without Vitor Roque after his recent ankle injury, shifting more of their running and finishing work to Arias, López and the wingbacks. Gómez is expected back in the defensive group, and João Martins directs Palmeiras from the touchline while Abel Ferreira is suspended.
I expect Fluminense to seek those right side deliveries early, then use their midfield passing and attacking changes to keep the same lane active after the break. Their first pass and second ball options give them a concrete way to turn home territory into a decisive finish. That's why I'm siding with Fluminense to win the regulation contest.
