Fleetwood's home cup shape is built around a back three, a holding midfielder and direct first passes into Evans or Coughlan. Arsenal can keep the ball around that block, switch sides and sustain corners. The decisive stretch is whether those repeated entries become clean finishes after Fleetwood's first clearance. Fleetwood's own second ball can make Arsenal's reshaped defence turn and defend its box.
Fleetwood limited Sheffield United to 0.66 expected goals at home, and Lynch had a compact line in front of him. Their four-goal Shrewsbury result came from very little chance volume, so the useful evidence is the defensive resistance rather than that score. Arsenal's rotated cup side scored four at Ipswich but also conceded two, while 20 attempts against Everton brought only four shots on target.
McCann played Fleetwood's last league game but has a cup suspension, so McLean, Helm and the forwards need to make the first outlet work. Bennett is reported back and Potter played the last game; their exact starting roles remain unannounced. Saliba and Saka missed Arsenal's last match, and Arsenal have already shown how their cup attack operates without them. The home block and Arsenal's observed finishing pattern give Fleetwood a credible way to keep the score competitive. That's why I'm siding with Fleetwood to stay within two goals.
