San Jose arrive in Frisco without the player who has carried their attack. Preston Judd, their 16-goal top scorer and the man behind three of their last six goals, is suspended, and Kikanovic, Johnson and Adimabua are also out. What is left is a compact back five that has given up only five goals in five games. Against a Dallas side that attacks through crosses rather than possession, this looks like a game of few clear chances.
The structure on each side matters here. San Jose's goals in recent weeks that did not come from Judd came from Löwen in midfield and from centre-backs Romney and Jasinski at set pieces. Their open-play threat in behind and in the air is gone, and their xG in the last three games was already low. Dallas at home have had only about 43% of the ball, and their last three home games ended 1-0, 1-0 and 0-0.
The key matchup is Musa against San Jose's five-man line. Dallas feed him with crosses and box entries, but a back five puts bodies in exactly the zone he attacks. Dallas's real edge is in the air, so set pieces are their most likely route. Up front for San Jose, whoever replaces Judd, whether Bouda, Jovanovic or Leroux, does not offer the same outlet, so clearances come straight back.
I expect the first half to be territory without much danger, with set pieces the main events and a level score or a one-goal margin at the break. If it stays tight past the hour, both sides can live with a point. San Jose's late push then depends on dead balls rather than open play.
The high-scoring meetings between these two came with Judd leading the San Jose line. Dallas's chaotic games this season were mostly away from home. With San Jose's main scorer missing and their block staying deep, I'm siding with a low-scoring game.
