[26-27 KBL] Ulsan Hyundai Mobis Phoebus vs Seoul Samsung Thunders preview Tip-off: November 5, 10:00 UTC
Seoul Samsung Thunders won the October 24 meeting 91-71. Ulsan Hyundai Mobis Phoebus had Bazley, who scored 33 points that day, but he is unavailable this time.
1. Game overview and team form
Ulsan Hyundai Mobis Phoebus’ 3-7 record does not fully reflect the team they have available today. Prim was diagnosed with a left knee ligament injury and Bazley with a tear in his left plantar fascia, with both expected to miss six weeks (Jumpball, October 23; Basket Korea, November 1). The pair accounted for 358 of the team’s 841 points this season, and Bazley leads the team with 39 assists. They are missing not only interior scoring and rebounding, but also a key playmaker who linked the offense together.
The October 31 game against Daegu KOGAS Pegasus, played without both players, showed the burden on the current lineup. Ulsan Hyundai Mobis Phoebus led the second quarter 21-17 on LEE WOO SUK’s outside shooting, but were outscored 30-15 in the third and lost 94-67. They made 10 three-pointers, yet were outmatched in rebounding, 21-36, and turnovers, 15-7, which cost them possessions. Head coach Yang Dong-geun said LEE SEOUNG HYUN or KIM KYUNG WON would have to play 40 minutes, and that the team would use traps and different defensive schemes (Jumpball, October 31). Spelmann signed on November 4, and reports say he could play if his registration is completed in time (Rookie, November 4). Even if he suits up, he will have only a day to adjust to the team’s defense.
Seoul Samsung Thunders have gone 9-1 with Kerem Kanter’s post scoring and defense in clutch moments at the heart of their success. Kanter has started all 10 games and averaged 25.6 points per game, earning first-round MVP honors (Sports Kyunghyang, November 3). In their last two games, though, they have made more mistakes while trying to feed the ball inside. Against Seoul SK Knights on November 1, the first-half turnover count was 9-1, and the opposition turned those mistakes into fast-break points to pull away in a 90-76 win (JoongAng Ilbo, November 1). Head coach Kim Sang-sik also said they had committed too many turnovers by insisting on getting the ball into the post (Star News, November 1).
2. Matchup analysis
The first matchup to watch is the pass into Kanter and Ulsan Hyundai Mobis Phoebus’ trap. It will be tough for LEE SEOUNG HYUN and KIM KYUNG WON to defend Kanter one-on-one for long stretches. Ulsan Hyundai Mobis Phoebus are likely to send two defenders as soon as the pass goes in, looking to force the same kind of turnovers Seoul Samsung Thunders have been making recently. A steal would also give them a chance to score in transition, alongside outside shots.
Seoul Samsung Thunders have faced this defense before. After Ulsan Hyundai Mobis Phoebus changed their coverage on Kanter on October 24, Kim Sang-sik explained that they had passed to Kanter during the offense rather than on the first pass (Basket Korea, October 24). Kanter regained his touch inside in the third quarter through a two-man game with LEE GWAN HEE, and Ulsan Hyundai Mobis Phoebus lost that quarter 27-15. Even if Ulsan’s trap works early, they will have to defend again if Seoul Samsung Thunders change the timing of the pass and the way they run their offense.
The second matchup is rebounding and the extra possessions that follow. Ulsan Hyundai Mobis Phoebus were also outrebounded 11-5 on the offensive glass on October 31. Seoul Samsung Thunders have won the rebounding battle in recent games, 37-26 against Goyang Sono Skygunners and 44-38 against Seoul SK Knights. If Ulsan trap Kanter, they will have fewer players available to battle for rebounds after a shot. How much Spelmann can contribute in that role matters, but his playing time has not even been decided yet.
Ulsan Hyundai Mobis Phoebus can close the gap with outside shooting. They led the second quarter in both of their recent losses, and on October 31 LEE WOO SUK hit consecutive shots from outside during that stretch (Rookie, October 31). But making three-pointers alone did not make up for the gap in possessions caused by rebounding and turnovers. The key in the second half will be whether Seoul Samsung Thunders can cut down on turnovers when feeding the post while keeping up their perimeter defense.
3. Final view and conclusion
We expect Seoul Samsung Thunders to build a lead from the third quarter on, with Kanter’s inside scoring and rebounding. Ulsan Hyundai Mobis Phoebus could not adjust when Kanter changed his approach in the second half of the October 24 meeting, and now they are also without Bazley, who scored 33 that day. Since Prim and Bazley went out, Ulsan’s offensive rebounding and scoring have both declined. That leaves the drop in Ulsan Hyundai Mobis Phoebus’ scoring larger than any increase in Seoul Samsung Thunders’ output, so we expect a low total.
The market strongly favours a Seoul Samsung Thunders win, while anticipating a relatively narrow margin. Their last two road wins were both by 8 points, but Ulsan Hyundai Mobis Phoebus are now missing both foreign players who could match up with Kanter inside. On October 31, they made 10 three-pointers but still could not overcome the third-quarter deficit in rebounding and possessions. We agree on the direction of the result, but expect the margin to grow in the second half.
Ulsan Hyundai Mobis Phoebus have a clear path to keeping this close. They need to force a run of turnovers with traps on post entries, and Spelmann needs to play and handle the interior defense and rebounding from his first game. Reports say Spelmann could play if his registration is completed (Rookie, November 4), but even if he does, he will have little time to get on the same page defensively.
[Final picks, by market, based on Betman’s offerings] Match result: Loss. Kanter and McCullough should give the road team more offensive possessions through their inside play and rebounding against the two domestic bigs. The road team also has a response to the home side’s trap, having used it against this opponent on October 24. Win by 5: Loss. The same matchup points to a road win by 6 or more. For the game to stay within 5 points, the visitors would need to make repeated turnovers, the home side would need to convert them into fast breaks, and Spelmann would need to handle extended minutes protecting the paint. Handicap +8.5: Loss. The visitors’ recent 8-point road wins came against teams with foreign players protecting the paint. Today, fatigue for LEE SEOUNG HYUN and KIM KYUNG WON after halftime, along with the offensive rebounding gap, sets up a margin of 9 or more. Total 168.5: Under. The home side are without the two foreign players who provided their scoring, and the visitors can guard the backcourt without needing to send help. We expect the decline in home scoring to outweigh any increase in the visitors’ interior scoring.
