This opener is a meeting of two styles that cancel each other out at the possession level. Detroit lives on forced turnovers, free throws and the offensive glass, and Boston is the league's most careful team with the ball and one of the least foul-prone defences. Once those columns level out, the game comes down to Boston's three-point volume against Detroit's rim scoring, continuity and home floor. Boston's edge on paper comes mostly from new names who have yet to play a real game together.
Last season Detroit won 60 games with the second-best defence in the league. It forced the most turnovers and got the most steals, drew free throws at the third-highest rate and crashed the offensive glass hard. Boston won 56 by protecting the ball better than anyone, taking about 42 threes a game at the slowest pace in the league, and rarely sending opponents to the line. On those numbers, turnovers, offensive rebounds and free-throw rates all come out close to even in both directions.
The key matchups: Ausar Thompson, a first-team All-Defence pick, on Jayson Tatum, who shot .411 in 16 games after his Achilles rupture. Cade Cunningham against Derrick White and Jordan Walsh; Cunningham scored 25, 32 and 42 in three of last season's four meetings. Jalen Duren against Mitchell Robinson on the glass, which decides whether Detroit still gets extra possessions from a team that won't give it turnovers.
The lineup story is mostly about who is new. Boston swapped Jaylen Brown for Paul George, gets Tatum back, and starts Robinson and Walsh for the first time. Detroit brings back four of five starters and the same coach, with John Collins in for Tobias Harris. The absences are minor on both sides: Devin Carter is out for Boston and Taurean Prince is questionable for Detroit, and neither one is a starter or a core rotation player.
I expect a slow, cagey start while Boston's new group finds its feet, which is Detroit's best window to build a lead through Duren and Cunningham attacking downhill. Boston's runs usually come from bursts of threes once its shooters off the bench join in. Last season's four meetings were decided by 6, 7, 3 and 1 points, so a tight fourth quarter is the base case.
Detroit beat this Boston system three times in four last season, and Boston was already just as careful with the ball and just as disciplined about fouling back then. What makes Boston look stronger now is talent that hasn't shown its level together yet, while Detroit's way of winning is proven and returns almost intact on its own floor. That's why I'm siding with Detroit to win this one outright.
