Two very different knockout games, both shaped by who is missing and who has to chase.
Palmeiras host the second leg of a Libertadores semi-final with a one-goal lead from the first leg. Fluminense have the ball but create little, and they come in without both of their forwards for a second straight match, plus a suspended left back. Palmeiras are missing two suspended defenders, but their home record is tight: one goal conceded in four home games of the last ten.
The tie forces Fluminense forward. Early on they should keep the ball while Palmeiras sit compact. After the restart and into the last half hour, a chasing Fluminense leaves space behind, which is exactly how Palmeiras won the first leg with a third of the possession. That's why I'm siding with Palmeiras to win this one in normal time.
In Columbus, the US Open Cup final pits a high-volume home side against a visitor that is simply more efficient. St. Louis have scored in nine of their last ten and are on a long unbeaten run. Columbus have lost their likely forward and a defender, and as the shorter-priced side they have failed to win more often than they have won. Columbus will shoot a lot, but the conversion is the question, and a drawn ninety minutes simply returns the stake. That's why I'm siding with St. Louis not to lose.
