Two Japanese basketball games where the weaker side is short on bodies and defence rather than just unlucky. In both, the favourite's edge comes from a unit the opponent cannot patch before tip-off.
Kawasaki Brave Thunders against Osaka: Osaka lost their import big man Saiz for about six months, have several Japanese players on the injury list, shoot only 39 percent from the field and 25 percent from three, and have lost nine of their last ten. Kawasaki are in a slump of their own, but most of it came against stronger sides, and they have a real rim presence in Kirk against a small, thin Osaka frontcourt. Osaka can only stay close if their guards go hot from outside. That's why I'm siding with Kawasaki at home.
Chiba against Kyoto: Chiba concede about a hundred points a game, with the leak spread across every quarter, and they are missing their big man Costello for weeks. They also play a third game in five days after a heavy home defeat with a lot of turnovers, and guard Watanabe hurt his foot in that game. Kyoto defend at around seventy-eight a game, are rested and healthy, and score efficiently inside. I expect Kyoto to hold a small edge early and pull away as tired Chiba legs fade. That's why I'm siding with Kyoto on the road.
