Two matches where this week's broken units decide the shape. At Stamford Bridge, United arrive with their attack and their defensive spine both damaged, and the one route they have left is a set piece. In Augsburg, both defences are weakened at the same time, and neither goalkeeper has been stopping much. Both games come down to who can still create and who can still hold.
Chelsea against United first. Over their last five games in two competitions, under the same coach, United lost the expected-goals battle every time. They conceded roughly 1.4 to 2.2 and never created more than about 1.2. This week they also have no fit natural left-back with Shaw and Dorgu out, no Ugarte, a doubtful Mainoo and no Sesko up front. That leaves Mbeumo and Amad runs and Bruno's deliveries.
The key matchup is Palmer, back from his ban and fresh, against a United pivot that gave the ball away for a goal at Como and was bypassed against Bournemouth. Rogers and Neto should target the improvised left side. In goal, Lammens has let in seven of the last twelve shots on target he faced, while Penders saved six of eight in his last two.
Chelsea have real problems too: a short turnaround after the Anfield draw, no recognised 9, a rebuilt centre-back group and a keeper who struggles with crosses. Most of that feeds one narrow United route, a single set piece in a tight game. So I expect Chelsea to control the first hour, and if they score first, United have to chase without a striker. That's why I'm siding with Chelsea, with the draw protected.
Now Augsburg against Freiburg. Augsburg's back three loses Bah to suspension and Brackelmann to concussion, on top of Banks, so Keitel, a midfielder, is expected to fill in. That is exactly where Freiburg's most repeatable weapon lands: Grifo's corners and wide free kicks for Ginter, Matanovic and Goto.
At the other end, Freiburg's full-backs are patched after Treu's injury in the cup, with Makengo doubtful, and they come in on under three days' rest at the end of a third congested week. Augsburg have scored in each of their last ten and average seven shots on target. Backhaus has conceded ten from 23 on target over four games, and Dahmen has been leaking too.
I expect a lively first half from set pieces and wing-back crosses, then a more open last half-hour as Freiburg's legs go and Augsburg's bench comes on. Both sides have their own way to score, and neither defence is in shape to close the game down. That's why I'm on goals in this one.
