This game should be decided at the free-throw line and in the turnover count, more than by Charlotte's three-point shooting. Washington draw fouls with the same method night after night, and Charlotte's frontline has given up a lot of free throws in every game so far. Charlotte, missing its two best creators, gives the ball away even when nobody is stealing it. The home side's real counters are the glass and its shooting volume, and only one of those holds up from game to game.
Without White and Knueppel, Charlotte lean on Schroder as their one natural ball-handler. The offence is three-point volume from Miller, Allen, Reid and O'Neale: 43 to 51 attempts a game, but anywhere from 22 to 37 percent. It wins by owning the boards and by hitting threes. It loses the ball 16 to 25 times a game, and many of those turnovers come without a steal, so they are a roster problem rather than something only an aggressive defence can force.
Washington play the other way. The offence runs through Young's pick and roll and Davis inside, with fewer threes and the heaviest foul-drawing around: 41 and 35 free throw attempts against Milwaukee and Toronto. Charlotte have conceded 22 to 25 attempts in all three games while getting 12 to 25 themselves.
The key matchup is Young and Davis against Diabate, Reid and Kalkbrenner. If the Charlotte bigs pick up early fouls, the cover behind them gets thin quickly. Reid was added to the report with an illness after playing 37 minutes last time, which only adds to that. The other matchup is Schroder and Sion James handling against Young, Coulibaly and George. Washington are not an extreme press, so this edge is a few possessions, not a flood.
Charlotte's glass edge is real, but it came against Brooklyn and Miami, not a frontline of Davis, Sarr and Ayton. The absences on both sides were already there in every game used here, so nothing about the rosters is new apart from Reid.
Expect Washington to live at the line early. If Charlotte go cold from deep, the free throws and the dead-ball turnovers can give the visitors the lead by the break, with the Washington starters' third quarter as their run window. Charlotte's late offence without its main creators has been its weakest quarter.
That's why I'm siding with Washington to win this one outright.
