Both of these matches turn on the same thing: which back line has changed this week, and which attack hasn't. At Celtic Park, both defensive spines are broken but both front lines are intact. In Malmo, the home side field a brand-new centre-back pairing while the visitors' defence has already settled after its own absences. In both games, the absences hurt one side more than the league table suggests.
Celtic v Hearts first. Celtic hold the ball, score early at home and then tend to manage the game. They have scored only once after the break in four home league games. Hearts are the league's top scorers on the break, with a front four of Wilson, Braga, McPake and Miller. Hearts have scored in every league game, all four away games included, and often late.
The key change is at the back for Celtic. Carter-Vickers and Johnston are missing, so second-choice players fill centre-back and right-back. Celtic's tidy league record of conceding was built with Carter-Vickers in the side, and the only game with this pairing saw Benfica take 26 shots. Hearts have problems too: Halkett, Ageu and Renaud are missing from the defence and midfield screen. That leaves room for Nygren, Duran and Hogh, who have scored most of Celtic's goals. Hearts have conceded in every away league game.
So I expect Celtic to get their goal from possession, probably early. Then, as legs tire after both sides' Thursday games, Hearts get the breaks behind Celtic's advanced full-backs. That's why I'm siding with goals at both ends here, not a Celtic rout.
Malmo v Hacken next. Malmo get plenty of shots at home but finish poorly, and they lose games to opponents who break with few shots. Their home record is five wins, one draw and six defeats. This week the finishers behind their recent goals are gone or doubtful: Sjostrand is out, Milosavljevic likely out and Lahdo doubtful. At the back, Djuric is suspended and Jansson injured, so a new pair has to deal with Lindgren and his twelve league goals.
Hacken lost centre-backs too, but those absences came before their recent 3-0 and 5-0 wins, so Helander and Hilvenius have already settled in as the pair. Hacken's midfield pivot is intact and Svanback is back. I expect Malmo to have the ball and Hacken the sharper chances in transition. That's why I'm siding with Hacken in this one.
