Two Championship matches here turn on the same question: can a defence that is unsettled by role handle the simple things? Derby arrive at The Den with a centre-back pair that has never played together, while Burnley hand a new coach a back line that keeps failing on dead balls. In both games the side with the steadier structure is not the one the table or the squad list might suggest at first glance. These are matches about units, not names.
Millwall and Derby first. Alex Neil's side do not need the ball. They play direct, live on territory and corners, and two of their centre-backs score. At home against lower-half sides they have averaged about 1.83 xG for and 0.90 against. Derby under John Eustace sit and counter away from home, and those games average about 0.9 xG for and 1.76 against.
The key matchup is Derby's new centre-back pairing against Dykes and Millwall's corners, with 25 corners won in the last two home games. Sanderson is suspended, Nyambe is a right-back who has been covering centrally, and Duffy, 34, has not played a match in almost a year. Hedges, a winger, is likely at left-back. Millwall are without Coburn and Arconte, so Dykes leads the line, but corners, aerial duels and Metcalfe's shooting do not depend on those two.
Derby's best route is one cross to Morris or a late Clark arrival, and they have scored in five of six away games. But that route needs their block to hold, and this block is brand new. Expect Millwall to press up and throw balls into the box early. If they score first, Derby have to come out and space opens for Lisbie, Esse or Lovelace. That's why I'm siding with Millwall to win.
At Turf Moor, Fabio Celestini has had three days since replacing Nicky Hayen. Burnley do create, and they scored in all of their last ten, but they concede 1.7 xG and 5.5 shots on target a game. Errors and dead balls have been the repeated cause, against Wolves and at Lincoln. Three days can lift a mood. They rarely fix that.
Portsmouth are built to exploit exactly this. Mousinho's side sit in a 4-2-3-1 block and have allowed 5 goals in 6 away games. They create little, but penalties, a scramble after a set piece and late substitutes have been enough, with goals in the 82nd and 86th minutes of their last two games. Poole won 9 of 10 duels against Millwall, and he and Dia have now played together through the last two matches. Bishop, Swift and Anderson are missing, but much of that list was already out during a run of one defeat in eight.
Burnley should come hard for 20 to 25 minutes. If it stays level past the half-hour, the ground gets tense and this becomes Portsmouth's kind of game, tight and decided by one moment. Burnley have drawn four of six at home and recently led Wolves and Charlton without winning. That's why I'm siding with Portsmouth to avoid defeat.
