Buriram have a direct route into the box, and the next clearance looks central to this matchup. Beijing have shown how quickly they can turn a midfield recovery into a chance of their own. The contest should hinge on which side wins the ball after the first delivery.
Schimmer and Bissoli give Buriram targets for Mendes and the wide suppliers. Their direct play produced a goal against Johor, while Beijing's recent goals against Pohang showed the value of following a loose clearance. That makes the contest around Beijing's central defenders and Buriram's second ball runners especially important.
Beijing coach David Montgomery has said that Spajic and Zhang Yuning will rest. Spajic played the full match at Qingdao, and Zhang supplied a goal there while providing a familiar link to Fabio. Beijing still have Fabio as a box finisher, so Buriram's Dougall and central defenders have an important recovery job when possession turns over.
Buriram can start by sending early balls into their receiving line and pressing for the next touch around the box. Paulinho and Supachai give them another way to renew those attacks later in the match. Beijing's changed central pairing will have to deal with both the first contact and the follow-up.
I am siding with Buriram to take the match. Their direct supply and second ball work give them a concrete way to test Beijing's reshaped central cover, while Zhang's absence changes the route into Fabio at the other end.
