Two matches, two different stories. In Brisbane, two porous, box-hungry sides meet and neither recent game looked low-event. In Gwangju, the series has been decided by who survives the middle innings, and the workload sheets lean one way.
Brisbane Roar have been the heavier possession and box-volume side lately: 14 shots, 11 of them inside the box, against Perth, with both goals before the break. They also allow chances, with a 2-3 loss and a 2-2 draw earlier in the sample. Auckland FC conceded five at the Wanderers, with ten shots inside their box, and four of those goals came just before, just after the restart or late. They are without Calver, Howieson and Middleton on the list, though I could not confirm the first two's minutes in the last game. Auckland do score on counters and wide deliveries, so both sides have a route to goals. The head-to-head was low scoring, but those meetings were played by different squads. That's why I'm siding with goals in Brisbane.
In Gwangju, Game 4 finds KIA trailing 2-1. Every KIA starter has left early so far, so the series has come down to the bullpens. Naile threw only 57 pitches in Game 1 and has a solid record against Samsung. Fedde threw 94 pitches and gave up five runs on the same rest. Samsung's two best relievers are on a third straight day and the manager himself questioned their condition, while KIA has Yang and a rested closer ready. That's why I'm siding with the KIA Tigers to win.
