Both of these matches come down to a home side with the ball against a visitor whose legs or forward line are short. Neither is a lock, and the lean is modest in each, but the pre-match facts tilt the same way.
Tottenham have had a full week to prepare and usually hold around 60 percent of the ball. Crystal Palace come in with four games in about two weeks and under three days of rest after a European trip and a cup tie. Their defence is also thin, with Riad and Tomiyasu out, and Sarr is missing too. Spurs do not score a lot, and their attack is short of Mudryk, Odobert and Simons, but the tired legs should show in the second half, when Spurs' fresher substitutes matter most.
I expect Spurs territory from the start, with Palace sitting deep and hoping for a counter or a set piece. That's why I'm siding with Tottenham to win.
At Brentford, the home side average over two goals a game and play open matches. Nottingham Forest have scored 0.7 a game over their last ten and have drawn a blank in five of them, and their strikers Jesus and Ndoye are both out. Brentford's midfield is thin after a suspension and an injury, and the midweek cup tie may cost them some control, so a Forest counter is the way this goes wrong for the home side.
Still, Forest's finishing is the concrete problem, and an early Brentford goal would likely settle the game. That's why I'm siding with Brentford, without needing the win if it ends level.
