Both of these matches are about roles fitting together rather than clashing. In Cordoba, River want the ball and Belgrano have done their best recent work without it. In Monterrey, the hosts are pushed into carrying the ball at home, while Pachuca get the away counter-attacking role that has earned almost all of their points. In both cases the favourite's averages were built in different conditions from the ones this fixture creates.
Belgrano vs River. Under interim coach Leonardo Ponzio, River have had 58-75% of the ball in every recent game we have stats for, with 15 to 28 shots a night. They still mostly win by one goal or draw, and they concede from very little: Huracan scored twice from almost nothing at River's own ground. Belgrano under Ricardo Zielinski play two ways. At home against weaker sides they keep the ball and look ordinary. Against equal or better sides they sit in a compact block, and that is how they won 2-0 at Racing with 38% of the ball and 1-0 at Talleres. They have five clean sheets in their last ten games.
The key duel is River's circulation against Belgrano's midfield pair of Adrian Sanchez and Franco Vazquez, with Lisandro Lopez and Maldonado protecting the box. River's reported XI has about four changes: Lucas Beltran is expected up front instead of Driussi, Lautaro Pereyra may replace Galvan, and Acuna is doubtful after coming off with knocks last time out. Galvan, Driussi and Acuna supplied a good share of River's recent goals. On the other side, Thiago Cardozo returns in goal for Belgrano.
I expect a tight first half with River on the ball, and Belgrano's first halves have been goalless again and again. After the hour the stakes take over. River are ninth and need the win, while Belgrano are already through to next year's Libertadores and can live with a point. If it's level late, River will push numbers forward into the window where Zielinski's bench and counters have struck: 86th minute at Talleres, stoppage time at Racing, and two late goals when Belgrano beat River in the Apertura final. That's why I'm siding with Belgrano not to lose.
Monterrey vs Pachuca. Almeyda's Monterrey hold the ball at home (63% against Tigres, 72% against San Luis), but that hasn't turned into many chances, and with the ball they are open on the turnover. San Luis won 3-1 there on the counter. Pachuca split sharply by venue. At home they carry the ball and leak goals, but away they drop to around 44% possession, play off Rondon with Pizarro and Idrissi running, and have conceded only three goals in six away games. They won 3-0 at Atlante and lost only to a penalty at Santos.
The matchups that matter are Pachuca's counter against Monterrey's rest defence, and Monterrey's right side against Isais, who comes in at left back for the suspended Venegas and has played plenty of minutes off the bench. Pachuca's long-term injuries are old news, and their recent away numbers were built without those players. Almeyda says he is going for the win, which puts Monterrey right into the ball-carrying role where their home results have been weakest. Pachuca have also won on their last three visits to this stadium.
The likeliest outcomes are a draw, a narrow Monterrey win or a Pachuca counter win. A comfortable home win needs an early goal and then Pachuca abandoning the shape that has served them on the road. That's why I'm siding with Pachuca to keep this close.
