This match hinges on whether Baskonia's guard pressure disrupts Beşiktaş before the ball reaches its other creators. Baskonia has more depth at center now, but its positioning behind that pressure is still developing. Beşiktaş has several ways to move the ball and finish a possession, so the contest should be decided by more than either team's latest score.
Baskonia can create through Simmons, Spagnolo and Baugh, with Lawson, Stewart and Duarte finishing from the perimeter. Its burst against Girona showed the shooting available to that group, while the Milan game was still level late. Beşiktaş has a different route through Wilbekin, Brown and Dotson: they can pass beyond the first defender, find Zizic inside, or reach Morgan and Omoruyi around the four spot that coach Galbiati says Baskonia is still working to defend.
Santos has joined Faried in Baskonia's center rotation, giving it more coverage than in its earlier games. Beşiktaş has already played its recent EuroLeague games without Jeffries, while Zizic and the other creators have held their roles. That makes its current attacking pattern more useful than treating Jeffries' absence as a new change.
Baskonia should press the guards early and look for quick offense at home. Beşiktaş can answer by getting the first pass through and letting its second creators attack before the defense resets, then keep that inside and outside mix going through the middle quarters. That's why I'm siding with Beşiktaş to win this match.
