Both of these matches turn on a team whose usual shape has been hollowed out this week. Aston Villa face City on short rest after a midweek Champions League night, with their full-backs and a key midfielder missing. Hamburg travel to Paderborn without the two players who held their block-and-counter game together. In each case the side with the intact structure meets one that has to improvise.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City. Villa played on Wednesday night and kick off early on Saturday, and Emery has admitted some players are carrying pain. Wan-Bissaka, who played in the win at Newcastle, is out along with Ruggeri and Onana. Maatsen is coming back from injury with no fit cover behind him. City rested Haaland in midweek, the players covering their own fitness doubts all played this week, and they have scored in each of their last ten.
Villa's best chance is the first half hour: crowd energy, a Mbaye corner for Barkley at the near post, or Jackson running in behind. Emery's record against City is strong, but those wins came against a different City setup. Once City settle on the ball, I expect them to pin Villa back and work the side where Maatsen returns, with tired legs telling around the hour. That's why I'm with City in this one.
Paderborn vs Hamburger SV. Hamburg's recent run looks better than it was. Their away games read three scored and nine conceded, and the win at Hoffenheim came against ten men with goals at the very end. Their structure is a deep block with Remberg screening it and Vuskovic in the middle of defence, and both are out. In the one full game without Remberg they were outshot heavily and needed a late goal.
Paderborn press hardest early and have twice been two goals up at the break this season, which is exactly the pressure a reshuffled midfield screen struggles with. Hamburg's route is to survive an hour and strike late with Daka, Moffi or Stange. I rate that as the weaker of the two readings, and the draw sits between them. That's why I'm backing Paderborn not to lose this one.
