Shimane live and die by the three, and how they shoot depends heavily on who is guarding them. Against strong defences this roster has gone cold and lost every time by double digits or close to it. Sendai bring exactly that kind of perimeter defence, along with a small edge in possessions. The one weakness in Sendai's game, the offensive glass, is not something Shimane can attack.
Without McAdoo, Kitagawa and Iio, all out since the summer or early September, Shimane take about 30 threes a game. They shot 27% on 157 attempts against the stronger group (Dolphins twice, Ryukyu, Chiba, Toyama) and 41% against weaker sides. Against the heavy favourites the margins were -12, -10, -21 and -19. Even a 14-of-29 night against the Dolphins at home ended in a 10-point loss.
Sendai's defence has kept opponents to about 26 three-point attempts at around 32%. The last three teams they faced went 5 of 25, 5 of 27 and 5 of 20. On offence they run through Culver's creation and El Darwich's passing, and they were efficient inside at Kawasaki.
Possessions favour Sendai too. They force about 14 turnovers and give up about 12, while Shimane sit around 12 both ways, which gives Sendai two or three extra trips. Sendai can be hurt by big rebounding frontcourts, but Shimane lost the glass to Kawasaki and the Dolphins and only broke even at Toyama.
The Shimane absences are long-standing, and those players missed every game I compared. No Sendai injury is reported, and Culver is on the travelling roster.
I expect Sendai to build the margin in the second and third quarters, where their best window meets Shimane's weakest. Shimane do push in the second half, and Sendai's legs in a fifth game in ten days are a real factor late. But Shimane's comeback at Toyama started from 20 down and still fell short. I put the margin at roughly eight to eleven, which is why I'm siding with Sendai to win comfortably on the road.
