Two Champions League Elite matches, two different shapes. In Jeddah, Al-Gharafa are not a side that holds a block, and this week they lose the midfielder who carries them out of pressure. In Baghdad, Al Quwa Al Jawiya barely create at home, while Pakhtakor are built not to lose away and settle games late from the bench.
Al Ahli against Al-Gharafa. Gharafa conceded 25 shots and ten on target even with Bennacer playing on 22 October, and they have let in nine goals in three away games. Bennacer is banned here, and he was their outlet in transition. Ahli are without Demiral, Abu Al-Shamat and Masoud, but that same unit produced well over three expected goals in each of its last two games, mostly after half-time. Gharafa also need points, so they cannot sit deep for ninety minutes.
The flow should be Ahli pressing, a tight first half, then the game opening between the hour and 75 minutes as Ahli's fresh attackers come on against a tiring Gharafa midfield. If Ahli score first, the second and third goals follow. That's why I'm backing Al Ahli to win by a clear margin.
Al Quwa Al Jawiya against Pakhtakor. The home side have scored three goals in their last five home games without a win, and managed only two shots on target against Al Ain. Pakhtakor have not lost any of their last twenty away games and keep finding late goals through their bench, with strikes in the 86th, 89th and 90th minutes recently. Al Quwa's own coach talks openly about individual lapses at the back.
Expect a low-event first hour with Al Quwa pushing on crowd energy and set pieces, then Pakhtakor's substitutes taking over a stretched game late. That's why I'm siding with Pakhtakor not to lose this one.
