Two European nights where both teams keep their attacking routes and the defences are the weak part. In Amsterdam, Atalanta arrive with a broken centre-back line against an Ajax side that lives on set pieces and box pressure. At the Vitality, Bournemouth's press meets a rotated Milan build-up, while Milan's runners have space to attack behind a high line.
Ajax v Atalanta. Ajax have scored in each of their last ten, through corners and loose balls in the box, Wijndal's overlaps on the left and midfield runs from Brandt and Klaassen. They put five past Groningen with the same absentees they have now. Atalanta's back line is the problem: Hien, Kossounou, Scalvini, Kolasinac and Pompei are all out, and Sarri himself says Kristensen is his only fit senior centre-back and that Zappacosta lacks the height to partner him. Atalanta's front unit, though, is intact. Scamacca, De Ketelaere, Elmas and Zalewski have scored at least twice in each of the last three games, and Ajax keep giving the ball away in their own build-up, which cost them goals at Hajduk and Groningen. Whoever scores first forces the other side to open up. That's why I'm expecting an open, high-scoring game.
Bournemouth v Milan. Rose's Bournemouth win the ball high and go forward fast, and Amorim is fielding a rotated XI with a young midfield, the same kind of side Benfica pressed into mistakes. Milan's answer is direct: balls in behind for Cisse, who scored three in his last start, against a Bournemouth line that was cut open early at Chelsea. Bournemouth's intensity drops after the break, Rose admitted as much, and that is when Milan's bench quality arrives. Both attacks have scored in nine of their last ten, and Bournemouth concede against anyone above the weakest opponents. I'm expecting both of these sides to find the net.
