[2026–27 Italian Serie A] AC Milan vs Inter Milan Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 31, 19:45 UTC
The standings and recent results favour Inter Milan. In the derby, the space AC Milan leave when pushing forward and how Inter Milan manage it are likely to decide the match.
1. Match overview and team form
After the defeat to Bologna, Ruben Amorim said AC Milan had been playing too far from the opposition goal and that he would push the whole team higher up the pitch (Fantamaster, October 30). AC Milan had 66% possession in that match but managed only eight shots. With Modrić and Pulisic expected to start today, they could play the ball in behind with quick free kicks and runs beyond the defence, as they did against Udinese. The predicted formations vary by outlet, though, and Amorim changed the defensive shape during the Bologna match. We will have to see whether his plan to push forward means a high defensive line from the outset.
Tomori’s absence affects both defence and attack. He played a pass into the box that helped set up a goal against Bologna and was involved in AC Milan’s attacks down the right against Udinese. Amorim confirmed Tomori’s injury (MilanPress, October 30). Right-sided defender Gila has returned to training, but Amorim said he would assess his availability to start on matchday (Sky Sport, October 30). AC Milan conceded from wide after a defensive change in the second half against Bologna, so their response on the right will matter today, both from the start and off the bench.
Inter Milan have won eight and drawn one of their nine league matches, scoring 25 and conceding 10. Their recent wins have come in different ways, including a goal from a substitute against Bologna, a stoppage-time penalty against Fiorentina, and two own goals against Venezia. With Lautaro Martínez out, Thuram is expected to partner Esposito or Bonny up front, putting more of the finishing burden on Thuram. Chivu said he has only three centre-backs available (FC Inter 1908, October 30). Both teams brought some regular starters on in the second half of their previous match, and with European fixtures coming up, rest alone does not give either side an edge.
2. Matchup analysis
If AC Milan push forward, Modrić can find Pulisic and Hutchinson from a higher position. Chivu said he would watch for AC Milan’s attacks between the lines and vertical passes, while managing the defensive distances and space in behind (Tuttosport, October 30). Whether Inter Milan’s Barella and Çalhanoğlu press Modrić directly or focus on cutting off the passing lanes behind him could shape AC Milan’s ability to get into the box. If Inter maintain their spacing as Chivu intends, AC Milan may struggle to find room for their forwards to receive the ball, even with long spells of possession, as against Bologna. But if Pulisic can exploit the gap between the wing-back and the back three, one pass from Modrić could turn the defence around.
At the other end, Thuram and Inter Milan’s left-sided players will test AC Milan’s right flank. Thuram’s low ball from the left byline against Venezia led to an own goal, and Carlos Augusto scored after coming on against Bologna. If Gila plays, he will face those movements despite not having trained consistently. If Musah or Hutchinson drops back to help defensively, that will also affect how high AC Milan can leave their players. If Amorim pushes the line up and his side then loses the ball at the back, Thuram could attack in more open space. If Chivu sticks to his plan of protecting the space in behind, AC Milan will also find it harder to launch quick counterattacks.
3. Verdict and conclusion
The market favours the away side, reflecting Inter Milan’s first-place league position and AC Milan’s defensive absences. We see a reason to differ in the circumstances behind some of Inter’s recent high-scoring results. Their own goals and a particular substitute’s goal cannot be assumed to recur today, and some of the players who came on in those matches are expected to start. AC Milan will also have to account for the scoring burden falling on Thuram in Lautaro Martínez’s absence.
AC Milan do have a route to victory. A rested Modrić and Pulisic could use forward passes to attack the space behind the defence. Chivu has said he intends to manage that space, though, and AC Milan’s defensive shape and whether their returning player starts are still uncertain. Even if we allow for Thuram scoring down AC Milan’s right, Inter Milan have few defensive changes available and would still need to deal with AC Milan’s long balls and crosses after taking the lead.
If AC Milan do push their defensive line higher and the game sees frequent transitions in both directions, we could see more goals than this forecast suggests. For now, we expect both teams to focus on keeping their shape, score at most once through their respective attacking routes, and draw without any further goals.
[Final picks · By market · Based on Betman offerings] Full-time result: Draw. Chivu has said he will cover the space behind Pulisic, while Lautaro Martínez’s absence and changes to Inter Milan’s bench alter their route to a late comeback. Both teams have limited paths to victory. Handicap +1: Home win. A two-goal margin requires AC Milan to concede first, and a draw would mean a winning handicap result for AC Milan. Under 2.5: The own goals, penalty and specific substitute goal in some of the high-scoring results are not a reliable basis for expecting a repeat. Tomori and Lautaro Martínez are out, and Chivu’s focus on maintaining the team’s shape should limit further goals.
