[2026-27 Italian Serie A] Parma vs Udinese: Match Preview Kick-off: October 28, 17:30 UTC
Parma and Udinese meet at Stadio Ennio Tardini at 17:30 UTC on October 28 for Round 9 of the 2026-27 Serie A season. Both teams have managed just four points from eight matches. Parma are looking to climb out of the relegation zone, while Udinese are trying to end a six-match losing streak, so both badly need a win.
1. Match overview and team form
Parma are 19th with a record of 1 win, 1 draw and 6 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 15. Udinese have the same record, but their 9 goals scored and 18 conceded give them a one-goal advantage on goal difference and 17th place. 18th-placed Fiorentina also have four points, while bottom side Venezia have three. A win in this meeting offers a chance to move out of the relegation zone, while the loser could remain near the foot of the table. That is why Udinese coach Kosta Runjaic stressed both the importance of the Parma match and the need for a clean sheet after the defeat to Milan.
League after 8 matches Record: Parma 1 win, 1 draw, 6 losses / Udinese 1 win, 1 draw, 6 losses Goals scored and conceded: Parma 5 and 15 / Udinese 9 and 18 Expected goals and expected goals against per match: Parma 0.78 and 1.71 / Udinese 1.09 and 2.27 Current losing streak: Parma 3 matches / Udinese 6 matches
The teams have the same points tally, but their performances have differed. According to the data centre, Parma average just 0.78 expected goals per league match, pointing to limited chance creation. They had 25 shots and 1.57 expected goals against Torino recently but failed to score, and they also missed an early chance to take the lead against Lazio. In the three matches since Alberto Gilardino took charge, turnovers in the build-up and defensive errors have led to goals conceded. Three matches are too small a sample to say the change of coach has improved the attack, especially with different levels of opposition.
Udinese give opponents even more chances. They have conceded 18 goals in eight league matches, almost exactly in line with their 18.14 expected goals against. Four of the seven goals they have conceded across their last three defeats came from free kicks or corners. Their attack has also faded. They have failed to score in consecutive matches against Lecce and Milan since the Torino game, with expected goals of 0.55 and 0.42 respectively. Against Lecce, they had 67% possession but trailed 7-15 in shots inside the penalty area. Keeping the ball for long spells did not lead to clear-cut chances.
Both teams are expected to make changes to their starting line-ups. For Parma, Abdoulaye Ndiaye is expected to come into the back three in place of Diego Carlos, who has been involved in several recent goals conceded. Ndiaye has played just once in the league this season, completing 90 minutes, so the defence's understanding will need to be tested in the match. Up front, the team's top scorer in all competitions, Simone Lontani, is expected to start alongside David Romero. That would put Lontani in from the start after he has recently been used as a substitute. Pontus Almqvist and Hans Nicolussi Caviglia have returned to the squad after taking part in partial training, but their minutes could be limited. Nesta Elphege, who scored the winner against Udinese in April, is out.
Udinese cannot call on first-choice defenders Oumar Solet and Hassane Kamara. Without Solet, they will also lose a centre-back who could carry the ball forward and help launch attacks from the back three. Matteo Palma replaced Solet against Milan and made his first appearance as the left-sided centre-back in a back three. Still, Udinese conceded three goals against Lecce even with Solet and Kamara in the starting line-up. Their defensive problems cannot be explained by absences alone. In attack, Idrissa Gueye is out after ankle surgery. Gueye made runs in behind the defence and could change the shape of the attack. The remaining central striking options are Keinan Davis and Giulio Vinciati, who has played just 11 minutes this season.
The teams each won once in last season's meetings. Udinese won 2-0 at the Tardini. Edoardo Corvi's decision on the ball led to the opening goal from Nicolò Zaniolo, and a penalty and red card followed after Mariano Troilo brought down Davis. Parma won 1-0 away to Udinese in April. Parma had a different coach and goalkeeper then, so we cannot apply that result directly to this match. Corvi and Troilo are both expected to start today, though, and their response to Davis's movement is worth watching.
The schedule gives Parma a little more recovery time. They have had about four days since the Lazio match, while Udinese have had about three since playing Milan. Udinese also face Roma three days later. Runjaic has said he will manage Zaniolo's minutes, although both outlets expect him to start against Parma. Whether he starts and how long he plays could shape Udinese's attacking options later in the match.
2. Match-up analysis
The expected pattern is Udinese on the ball against a Parma side focused on defending. Parma drop their wide midfielders back to form a 5-3-2, then look for direct runs from their forwards when they win possession. Udinese are expected to keep their 3-4-2-1, with two attacking midfielders behind Davis. If Parma surrender the ball, Udinese will have to find a way through a side with plenty of players behind the ball. That is a difficult task for a team that had plenty of possession but failed to win against Cagliari and Lecce.
The players who could help Udinese change that are Jürgen Ekkelenkamp and Zaniolo. Ekkelenkamp scored three goals from a left central position in the first six rounds, and Udinese have failed to score in both matches since he was moved elsewhere. We cannot say the positional change alone caused that drought. But if Ekkelenkamp and Zaniolo start behind Davis as expected, they can receive the ball between Parma's midfield and back three and look for shots. Davis's ability to hold the ball with his back to goal and bring the second line into play will also matter. As last season's meeting showed, when Troilo faced Davis in the penalty area, one defender's response can open up a scoring chance.
At the other end, Udinese's wing-backs could be key. If Mergim Vojvoda and Kamara push forward, Parma can send Romero and Lontani into the space behind them as soon as they win the ball. Romero broke through the middle to score against Genoa and created a chance on the counter against Lazio. Lontani is Parma's leading scorer this season with four goals in all competitions. Udinese will also be asking a reshuffled back three to cover the space left by their advancing wing-backs, giving Parma a route to test the defence on the counter.
Runjaic has a choice to make about how to balance attacks down the flanks with protection against counter-attacks. Keeping either Vojvoda or Kamara deeper would limit the space for Parma's forwards to run into, but it would also reduce Udinese's numbers going forward out wide. Runjaic has underlined the need for a clean sheet, so Udinese may prioritise defence early on. If the match is still goalless in the second half, whether he pushes the wing-backs higher or keeps them in position to guard against Parma's counters will be a key decision.
The teams' scoring and conceding patterns by half also feed into that choice. Udinese have conceded in the second half in all eight league matches. They have scored 7 and conceded 7 in first halves, compared with 2 scored and 11 conceded after the break. The goals have come in different ways, so we cannot attribute them all to the same cause. Parma have scored four of their five league goals in the second half. Almqvist could also come off the bench and take on a defender directly, though he is only just returning from partial training. The case for Parma gaining an advantage later is not based on him playing a long spell. It rests more on the chance to find a moment to break through as Udinese push forward and cope with a shorter rest.
If Udinese score first, the match-up changes. Parma have created few chances this season, so they may leave space behind when they push forward in pursuit of an equaliser. Udinese have scored against Monza and away to Inter after opponents moved forward and left space. But their 7 goals from 2.6 expected goals across three away matches this season owe a lot to their finishing. That scoring return alone is not enough to expect another big away haul today.
Udinese's recent set-piece goals conceded stand out, but Parma's attacking record matters too. Udinese conceded twice after corners against Lecce and let in a goal from a quickly taken free kick against Milan. However, all seven of Parma's goals in all competitions this season have come from forwards, and none have been scored by defenders from set pieces. There is little evidence that Udinese's weakness lines up with a reliable Parma scoring route. Parma's counter-attacks, with Romero and Lontani running after a turnover, look more important than set pieces.
3. Verdict and prediction
We expect Parma to keep a clean sheet in the first half and then attack the space Udinese leave as they push forward. Udinese are likely to have more possession, but they have struggled to create clear chances against teams that sit back. They will also be without Solet's forward runs from the back and Gueye's movement in behind. With Lontani and Romero both expected to start, Parma can target the space behind Udinese's wing-backs. Udinese have conceded in every second half this league season, and their short recovery period plus the Roma match three days later also count in Parma's favour after the break.
The market made Udinese more likely to win when the odds opened. Even after the price shifted towards Parma following reports of defensive absences, Udinese remain slight favourites. Their league position, goals scored and Parma's limited chance creation help explain that assessment. But the teams are level on points, and Udinese are expected to have more of the ball against an opponent willing to wait. Solet and Gueye's absences reduce the options for building attacks and for changing things later in the match. Given the likely game plan and the players available, we see more reason to back Parma to win than the market does.
Our pick is a narrow Parma win, with a second-half counter-attack or substitute making the difference. If Parma take the lead and Udinese push further forward, there is a chance of a second goal, but a big Udinese win or a high-scoring exchange is not the main scenario we expect. The outlook would change if a mistake by Corvi or the Parma defence leads to an early Udinese goal. Parma would then have to push forward, leaving space for Ekkelenkamp and Kamara to exploit.
