[26-27 UEFA Europa League] RC Celta de Vigo vs Juventus preview and analysis Kick-off: 19:00 UTC on 15 October
Celta Vigo host Juventus at the Abanca Balaídos in Vigo at 19:00 UTC on 15 October, in the second round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. After losing their opener, Celta need points at home. Juventus began with a 5-0 win and have signalled that they will make changes to the starting line-up ahead of Lazio three days later.
1. Match overview and team form
The teams have made contrasting starts. Celta Vigo lost 1-0 away to Omonia, while Juventus beat NEC Nijmegen 5-0 at home. Celta's defeat extended their Europa League losing streak to three matches, dating back to their two games against Freiburg last season. They have scored once and conceded seven goals across those three games. Juventus, meanwhile, have kept clean sheets in four consecutive European group and league-phase matches. Both teams have played only once in this league phase, though.
This season in all competitions Overall: Celta Vigo, 1 win, 5 draws and 3 defeats in 9 matches, with 8 goals scored and 7 conceded / Juventus, 4 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in 7 matches, with 14 goals scored and 5 conceded In comparable venues: Celta Vigo at home, 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats in 4 matches, with 7 goals scored and 5 conceded / Juventus away, 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 3 matches, with 4 goals scored and 4 conceded Europa League, matchday 1: Celta Vigo 0-1 away to Omonia / Juventus 5-0 at home against NEC Nijmegen
These figures are based on results recorded by the data centre. Five of Celta Vigo's eight goals this season came in their home match against Racing Santander. They have scored just three in their other eight games. Their most recent outing, away to Elche, ended 0-0. After that match, coach Giráldez praised the clean sheet and a five-game unbeaten run in the league, but said the team did not move the ball well and had not played well enough to win. Celta have become more solid defensively, but have created fewer chances in the process.
The 5-0 win over Racing Santander showed both what Celta's attack can do and what they are missing today. They pressed high while the opposition had long spells of possession, won the ball in midfield and moved forward to score. Miguel Román helped link play and got on the scoresheet, while substitute Borja Iglesias dropped in front of the defence to receive the ball and lay it off for teammates. Pablo Durán scored twice. Román, Iglesias and Durán are all unavailable for this match. Even if Celta win the ball back, they cannot recreate the next pass and finish with the same players.
Juventus have conceded four goals in three away matches this season. At Cagliari, they enjoyed plenty of possession and sent in 35 crosses, but drew 1-1. Cagliari scored first after Conceição lost the ball in the 20th minute and the hosts moved forward. At Sassuolo, Juventus added attackers and found an equaliser, then conceded a late winner after losing possession in stoppage time. After that match, coach Spalletti admitted that sending so many players into the opposition box had been excessive. Who stays back while Juventus have the ball will matter on this away trip too.
The absences matter because of the roles those players fill, not just their number.
Team Celta Vigo: Miguel Román, Borja Iglesias and Pablo Durán unavailable / Recent roles: linking midfield to attack, holding the ball up in the front line, finishing Celta Vigo: Carl Starfelt unavailable / Recent role: dealing with aerial balls in the box and scoring from set pieces Juventus: Manuel Locatelli unavailable / Recent role: controlling midfield and building attacks from the back Juventus: Edon Zhegrova unavailable / Recent role: attacking contribution off the bench in league matches, not included in the Europa League squad
Celta's absences affect their recent routes to goal as well as their defence. Ilaix Moriba and Peñas are candidates to fill Román's midfield role, with Ferran Jutglà expected to lead the line. Iago Aspas is available, but he has not played a competitive match for a month, so the coach will decide how much time he gets. Juventus have already played several matches without Locatelli, while Zhegrova was never on their Europa League squad list. The new variable for Juventus is less about the absences and more about the starting combination Spalletti has said he will change. He confirmed that Nick Woltemade will play, but did not say whether he will start or how many other changes he will make.
Both teams played away in their leagues at the weekend and have had similar rest. Juventus host Lazio three days after this match. Celta also have a weekend fixture against Alavés, but their options are reduced by the absences. The forecast at kick-off in Vigo is 16.5°C, with a 0% chance of rain and light winds. The weather should not significantly restrict either team's usual approach. The teams have met only twice, in the last 16 of the 1999-00 UEFA Cup. Celta won 4-0 at home, but the coaches, squads and competition format have all changed, so that result offers little tactical guidance for this match.
2. Match-up analysis
Juventus are likely to have more of the ball, with Celta adjusting their defensive shape. Celta defended with three centre-backs and both wing-backs deep in their 0-0 away draw at Elche, with just 33% possession. At home they have looked to keep more of the ball, and both their goals scored and goals conceded have increased. Where they start their press against Juventus will shape the visitors' attacking routes.
If Celta sit deep, Juventus are likely to attack down the wings with crosses and target aerial balls in the box from set pieces. At Cagliari, a left-wing cross from Alajbegović found Randal Kolo Muani, who headed in an 81st-minute equaliser. Celta will be without Starfelt, who has handled aerial balls for them. They also conceded from corners against Getafe and Málaga, matches in which Starfelt played. Today Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres and Marcos Alonso may need to combine to deal with Juventus' Kolo Muani and Woltemade, as well as defenders joining set pieces. Even if Celta limit shots from the middle, they will still have to defend crosses and corners.
We cannot assume Juventus will turn those chances into goals quickly. Without Locatelli, their midfield struggled to move the ball forward through the middle against Sassuolo, who blocked central passing lanes. Their equaliser against Cagliari also came after the 80th minute. If it takes Juventus a while to get the ball wide while Celta hold their defensive shape, Radu and the back line will have time to get into position for crosses. Juventus can bring on another attacker in the second half, but they cannot use Zhegrova, who contributed to their league attacks after the break, in this competition.
The midfield battle will matter when Celta press higher. Against Racing Santander and Málaga, Celta created scoring chances by pressing as the opposition handled the ball centrally. Juventus' build-up also slowed against Sassuolo when the opposition blocked passing lanes between their centre-backs and midfielders. If Moriba wins the ball in that area and carries it forward, Celta can shorten the distance to goal. Swedberg or Aspas could link play, with Jutglà carrying the ball on.
Winning the ball and finishing with a shot are two different things, though. With Román out, someone else must take over the passes that linked midfield to the front line. Without Iglesias, Celta also lose a forward who could receive long balls with his back to goal and wait for teammates to join him. Jutglà won the ball and drove forward to score against Málaga, but had no shots before being substituted against Omonia. Swedberg set up the winner against Atlético Madrid last season, but has not scored in 363 minutes this season. More Celta recoveries in the opposition half would not, by themselves, give us enough reason to expect a goal today.
We should also watch what happens when Juventus beat Celta's first press. Juventus scored their opener against NEC Nijmegen with a long ball behind the defence when NEC pushed up to press even the goalkeeper. If Celta's wing-backs advance and Juventus play forward, Conceição, Nico González and Kolo Muani can run in behind. Celta will have chances to win the ball high up the pitch, but need to recover quickly when the press fails. How much Giráldez opts for an aggressive press at home, and how much he keeps the team in a low block, will shape the match.
The coaches may take different approaches after the opener. If Juventus go ahead, Celta will have more reason to push forward in search of their first points. But without Iglesias to hold the ball up and Román to link midfield, they may lose possession as they try to sustain attacks. Juventus could then run in behind or add a second from a set piece. If Celta score first, they could keep their defensive shape and wait for chances to break, as they did away to strong opponents last season. Juventus would likely increase their crosses and set pieces, while Celta would have to defend aerial balls without Starfelt.
Spalletti could also add attackers in the second half if the score is 0-0 or Juventus are behind. His half-time change against Cagliari led to an equaliser, but after his attacking changes against Sassuolo, Juventus conceded on a stoppage-time counter. Substitutions could strengthen Juventus in the box while also giving Celta chances to break. Celta still have Hugo González's set pieces and Alonso's heading threat. The key is whether Celta can maintain their defensive shape and take their limited chances before Juventus' advantage shows on the scoreboard.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We expect Juventus to have the ball, with Celta spending long spells defending. Celta's home press could test a Juventus midfield without Locatelli and a starting line-up that may change. But with Román, Iglesias and Durán out, Celta's options for winning the ball, connecting play and finishing have changed. It is uncertain whether their transitions will lead to shots even if Juventus lose possession.
We expect Juventus to score after sustained pressure from crosses and set pieces, rather than run up an early, emphatic lead. In Celta's box, without Starfelt, Kolo Muani, Woltemade and Juventus defenders arriving for set pieces could have repeated aerial duels. If Celta concede first and push forward, the absence of Iglesias could make it difficult to hold the ball up and give Juventus more chances to attack. With Lazio coming up three days later, Juventus have little reason to keep throwing attackers forward late in the game.
The market has also moved towards a close contest, reflecting Juventus' stronger squad as well as the expected line-up changes and Celta's recent defensive results. We differ on the impact of Celta's absences. Losing attackers lowers their scoring chances, while the team also loses Starfelt's aerial defending and Iglesias' ability to hold the ball up. Those gaps could affect Juventus' chances of scoring and extending the margin.
Our predicted score is Celta Vigo 0-2 Juventus. We expect Juventus to go ahead through a wide attack or set piece, then add a second as Celta push forward while chasing the game. If Celta can keep crosses out for more than 70 minutes without Starfelt and delay the first goal, a two-goal Juventus win will be difficult to deliver.
