[26-27 UEFA Europa League] Olympique de Marseille vs Olympiacos Preview and Analysis Kick-off: 15 October, 19:00 UTC
Olympique de Marseille and Olympiacos meet at the Stade Vélodrome on 16 October at 04:00 Korea time for Matchday 2 of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League league phase. Marseille need points at home after a heavy defeat in their opener. Olympiacos travel with a first win behind them and a run of three straight victories since their managerial change.
1. Match overview and team form
Marseille opened with a 1-4 defeat away to Besiktas, leaving them on zero points. They also lost four league games in a row, but ended a five-match losing run in all competitions with a 2-0 win away to Troyes on 12 October. Bruno Genesio called the Olympiacos match the most important one for the team right now. Dropping more points in their second of eight league-phase games would add pressure to the remaining six.
The Troyes win offered signs of a recovery, but also showed its limits. Marseille enjoyed plenty of possession in the first half but did not manage a shot on target. In the 50th minute, Amine Harit finished Emerson Palmieri's cross to put them ahead. In stoppage time, substitute Faris Moumbagna pressed an inaccurate pass at the back to win a penalty, which Himad Abdelli converted to make it 2-0. Marseille then sat deeper after taking the lead and allowed Troyes to shoot. The win ended their losing streak, but whether they can control a game after going ahead remains an open question.
Season record Europa League opener: Olympique de Marseille lost 1-4 away to Besiktas; Olympiacos beat Jagiellonia 2-1 at home Official matches listed in the data centre: Olympique de Marseille, 2 wins and 5 losses in 7 games, 10 goals scored and 12 conceded; Olympiacos, 3 wins and 2 draws in 5 games, 5 goals scored and 2 conceded Last match: Olympique de Marseille won 2-0 away to Troyes; Olympiacos beat Panathinaikos 1-0 at home
The Olympiacos table leaves out their 0-1 defeat to OFI just after Imanol Alguacil took over, as well as some early league matches. The five-game record shown should not be read as their full-season record. Under Alguacil, they have won three in a row since the OFI defeat, all by a one-goal margin. Their winner against Jagiellonia came in the 84th minute, while the decisive goal away to Levadiakos arrived in the 90+2nd. Olympiacos took time to turn sustained attacks into goals, but they held on for a 1-0 derby win over Panathinaikos despite playing with 10 men after a 66th-minute dismissal.
Marseille's results also need context. Three of their five losses listed in this season's data centre were by a single goal, and both wins came with a clean sheet. They have scored 7 goals and conceded 5 across three home games, recording 1 win and 2 losses. Against Troyes, they won despite managing only 5 shots and allowing 15. Their home scoring gives them a basis for optimism against Olympiacos, but the recent win alone does not show that their defending and game management have improved.
Both managers generally use a 4-2-3-1. Genesio wants his side to dominate possession and press high. Alguacil has kept his predecessor's shape while putting more emphasis on winning the ball back in the opposition half. Olympiacos repeatedly attacked to find a second-half winner against Jagiellonia and pressed high early against Panathinaikos. Both sides want control, so Marseille are unlikely to spend the match probing a deep defence as they did against Troyes.
The biggest change in Marseille's lineup is Pierre-Emile Højbjerg's absence. With the midfielder who featured against Rennes, Besiktas and Paris Saint-Germain unavailable, 20-year-old Nouhoum Kamissoko is likely to start alongside Himad Abdelli after making his first senior start against Troyes. Kamissoko earned praise for his defensive balance and passing accuracy, but came off in the 74th minute with cramp. Derek Cornelius's injury affects the depth of the squad more than the first-choice centre-back pairing. Timothy Weah is available again after suspension and could play at right-back or on the wing.
For Olympiacos, Ayoub El Kaabi is out injured, while Marius Mouandilmadji, the starting striker in the derby, is not in the European squad. Leon Bailey has also stayed home with a muscle problem. Roman Yaremchuk and Armando González are competing to lead the line. If Yaremchuk starts, Olympiacos will have a clear target for their crosses. Kostas Fortounis returns from suspension and adds options from free kicks and out wide. Santiago Hezze could start in midfield, with Gustavo Puerta having travelled for international duty and the team needing to assess his condition after the derby.
The last four meetings were split evenly, with two wins apiece, and every match was decided by one goal. The most recent was in 2020, and both teams have changed managers and key players since then, so those results offer little guidance for this game. The schedules are similar: both played a league match last time out and have an away game three days after this one. Olympiacos, though, spent more than 20 minutes with 10 men in the derby. The club cancelled the away tickets, so there will be no organised away support at the Vélodrome.
2. Matchup analysis
The key battle is Olympiacos's high press against Marseille's ability to build through midfield. Marseille conceded their first goal against Besiktas after Angel Gomes lost the ball in midfield, and their lines opened up after conceding several goals in quick succession in the second half. Kamissoko will face the press in place of Højbjerg. If Olympiacos win the ball high, they can attack before Marseille's defence is set or win a set piece. Whether Kamissoko can keep up the accurate passing he showed against Troyes under intense pressure will shape both Marseille's attacking threat and the pressure on their defence.
Marseille can put Olympiacos under similar pressure. They disrupted Rennes' build-up from the back with a high press in the first half of that away match. Olympiacos have usually had more of the ball in the Greek league, so building from the back under pressure at the Vélodrome could be unfamiliar. If Marseille press Panagiotis Retsos and Lorenzo Pirola into a turnover, they can create chances of their own. If Olympiacos beat the press and advance, Kamissoko and Abdelli will have more space to cover.
If Marseille play through the press, Amine Gouiri will be central to their attack. He has scored 4 goals in 7 matches listed in the data centre this season. Against Paris Saint-Germain, his pass started the transition that led to the equaliser in the 72nd minute. If Olympiacos push their defensive line up, Gouiri can attack the space behind it. When Olympiacos right-back Manolis Saliakas joins the attack, Emerson can push forward on that side and look for crosses from the opposite flank. Harit's opener against Troyes came from an Emerson cross.
For that route to work, Marseille's midfield need to get the ball to Gouiri. He had only 12 touches across the whole match against Troyes. If Olympiacos stop Marseille progressing through midfield and score first, the home side will have to attack against a settled defence. Olympiacos have already shown they can protect a lead with 10 men in the derby. That is why Marseille's home scoring record alone does not mean they will find it easy to score.
Crosses and set pieces are worth watching in Olympiacos's attack. Of their four goals under Alguacil, three involved an assist from Remo Freuler. Against Levadiakos, Saliakas headed in his cross. Against Panathinaikos, Freuler headed Fortounis's free kick on for Retsos to score the winner. Yaremchuk also came off the bench to score the winner against Jagiellonia. With fewer established options up front, their aerial battles will matter even more.
Marseille have already faced similar threats. They lost an opponent on a corner against Besiktas, and Rennes' winner also came after a cross and a headed pass. If Kelyann Bezahaf starts at right-back again, his only senior start was against Troyes. Starting Weah ahead of him on the wing could give Marseille more defensive cover, but the lineup has not been confirmed. Marseille's response down the right and their defending in the box will directly affect whether Olympiacos score when they deliver from the left.
The way each side manages the game after the first goal could prove decisive. Marseille dropped deeper after going ahead against Troyes. If they do the same against Olympiacos, Fortounis and Freuler will have more time to deliver crosses and set pieces. Marseille could disrupt Olympiacos's build-up and create further chances by keeping up the high press, but they would leave space for Olympiacos to attack if the visitors play through it. If Olympiacos score first, Marseille will have to push their line higher. Bailey's absence leaves them with fewer ways to add pace late on, but set pieces remain a route to another goal.
Fitness could affect both teams differently in the second half. Kamissoko came off with cramp in the previous match, while Olympiacos had to defend their lead with a numerical disadvantage in the derby. Marseille can bring on players such as Keyliane Abdallah and Moumbagna to attack space behind the defence or press a loose pass at the back. Olympiacos found an 84th-minute winner after making a change up front against Jagiellonia. The team that can maintain its midfield pressure and keep attacking the box late on could decide a tight match.
3. Final prediction and conclusion
Our predicted score is 1-1. We give Marseille a slight chance of scoring first by pressing aggressively at home, then playing the ball forward to Gouiri after Olympiacos push up. But if Marseille sit back after taking the lead as they did against Troyes, Olympiacos can keep delivering crosses and set pieces. That could lead to an equaliser, with Fortounis and Freuler supplying the ball and Yaremchuk or a defender contesting it in the box.
Our prediction reflects the risk that Marseille will struggle to play through the press in midfield without Højbjerg. Olympiacos have ways to threaten while Marseille sit deeper, even if they have not scored first. However, the absences of El Kaabi, Mouandilmadji and Bailey leave Olympiacos with fewer options to change their attack and score a second goal in the latter stages. Both teams have clear routes to a goal, but we find it hard to predict either side scoring again.
The market gives Marseille a slight edge because they are at home and won against Troyes, while also taking Olympiacos's three straight wins into account. But that Troyes win included a spell where Marseille sat back after scoring and allowed their opponents chances. If that approach meets Olympiacos's set-piece threat, we see a draw as more likely than a home win. If Marseille score first and keep pressing high to limit Olympiacos's crosses and set pieces, our 1-1 prediction would change and Marseille's chances of winning would rise.
