[2026-27 Spanish La Liga] Alavés vs Atlético Madrid Preview and Analysis Kick-off: 10 October, 23:15 (Korea time)
Alavés and Atlético Madrid meet at Mendizorroza in Vitoria on 10 October at 23:15 for Matchday 8 of La Liga. Alavés need to end a three-match winless run after a strong start to the season, while second-placed Atlético are chasing leaders Barcelona. The home side will look to keep numbers behind the ball, while the visitors can change their attacking shape during the match.
1. Match overview and team form
Alavés sit sixth with 11 points from seven league matches, having won three, drawn two and lost two. They have scored 11 goals and conceded six. They took 10 points from their first four games, but have since lost to Racing Santander and Valencia and drawn 0-0 with Athletic Club. They have scored only once in their last three matches, but their defence has not fallen apart. Against Racing Santander, they lost 1-2 despite having eight shots on target. At Athletic Club, they focused on defending and forced the hosts to take 15 of their 23 shots from outside the box. Alavés managed just two shots of their own in that match.
Atlético Madrid are second with 16 points from five wins, one draw and one defeat. They have scored 16 goals and conceded seven, and come into this match on a three-game league winning streak against Real Sociedad, Osasuna and Real Madrid. The scorelines have not always reflected consistent dominance. All three goals away to Real Sociedad came after the 84th minute, while both goals against Real Madrid came after the opposition were reduced to 10 men. Their 4-0 win over Osasuna was more convincing, with a 27-3 advantage in shots. If Alavés keep their defensive shape, Atlético could again need time to find a goal, as they did in two of those matches.
La Liga after seven matches this season Position and points: Alavés 6th, 11 points / Atlético Madrid 2nd, 16 points Record: Alavés 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats / Atlético Madrid 5 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat Goals scored and conceded: Alavés 11 and 6 / Atlético Madrid 16 and 7 Home and away: Alavés have 3 wins and 1 defeat in 4 home matches / Atlético Madrid have 2 wins and 1 defeat in 3 away matches
Quique Sanchez Flores adjusts Alavés' possession and defensive shape to suit the opposition. When they beat Villarreal 1-0 at home, they had only 25% possession. Ángel Pérez received a long diagonal pass from Antonio Blanco, advanced down the right and set up Lucas Boyé for the winner. Away to Athletic Club, Alavés defended in a 5-3-2 and held on for a 0-0 draw, but created very little going forward. The key to their chances is whether they can connect Pérez and the forwards after winning the ball back, rather than simply defending without possession.
Diego Simeone's Atlético Madrid attack with their forwards moving between positions. Alejandro Grimaldo starts on the left and also moves into central areas, while Kang-in Lee and Álex Baena receive passes inside. Jonathan David and Giuliano Simeone have also contributed goals with runs in behind. Simeone varies the height of his press from match to match. When the starting attack has been shut down, he has often made several substitutions around the 60th minute to change the midfield passing and movement up front.
Both teams had around three weeks off after their previous league matches because of the international break. Atlético had 17 players called up, and face Manchester United in the Champions League three days after this match. They have named a travelling squad without any injury or suspension absences for the first time this season, though that does not settle how they will divide minutes between the starting XI and the bench. Kang-in Lee felt discomfort in the same ankle during international duty and played only the first half, but has since trained with the team. Pablo Barrios and Alexander Sørloth are also expected to be available, though their starting roles and minutes remain undecided.
Two players' fitness matters for Alavés. Centre-back Ville Koski injured his right thigh while away with his national team, but completed the full training session on 9 October. A decision on his availability will be made on matchday. If Koski is out, Nicolás Valentini is the most likely replacement. Koski has contributed not only defensively but also with the first pass that starts attacks from the back. Reports said Boyé did not finish the same training session, though the club has not announced an injury. If Boyé, who has scored four league goals this season, cannot play, Alavés will need Mariano Díaz or Toni Martínez to hold the ball up front and finish Pérez's crosses.
Atlético Madrid have drawn two and lost two of their last four visits to Mendizorroza since their win there in January 2021, scoring just once. That record spans five seasons, and Alavés had a different manager the last time the teams met here. Atlético's attack has changed too. The away side's scoring struggles at this ground offer some context, but they do not determine whether this current attack will score.
2. Matchup analysis
We expect Atlético to have more of the ball early on, with Alavés defending through three centre-backs and the midfielders in front of them. Quique described taking points as a good result and said he was wary of the visitors changing the match with several substitutions around the 60th or 65th minute. Alavés have little reason to commit extra players forward while the score is level. Atlético need Kang-in Lee or Baena to receive and turn between the lines, then link up with David's runs in behind.
Facing three centre-backs could make Atlético's positional rotations harder to execute. Even if one Alavés centre-back steps out to follow a forward, two remain behind. Against Real Sociedad, Kang-in Lee often received the ball with his back to goal, and Simeone said the opposition had defended the link-up between Lee and Baena well. If Atlético cannot play forward between Alavés' midfield and defence, changing positions may still leave them short of chances inside the box.
Grimaldo's movement gives Atlético another option. When he moves inside from the left, Alavés' right-back has to watch both the pass into the middle and the space outside. There is also the option of a long pass from Hancko for Giuliano Simeone to run onto. But if Alavés keep a low defensive line, there will be less space behind them. Those runs become more dangerous if Alavés concede first and push forward. If Atlético take an early lead, David and Giuliano Simeone could find room to add to it, as they did late against Real Sociedad.
The key battle in the other direction is between Ángel Pérez and Grimaldo on the flank. If Atlético lose the ball after Grimaldo has joined the attack, Alavés can quickly switch play through Blanco to Pérez. That was the route to their winner against Villarreal. But if Pérez spends long periods defending in his own half because of Grimaldo and Baena's attacking runs, he will have less time to advance into the opposition half after Alavés regain possession. This flank battle can shape both Atlético's attacks and Alavés' counterattacks.
Boyé's availability affects how long Alavés can sustain attacks more than it changes their defensive shape. If he plays, they can send the ball forward to him and give teammates time to join the attack, and he can also finish Pérez's crosses in the box. Mariano Díaz and Toni Martínez can lead the line if Boyé is out, but there is little evidence that either can fulfil both roles to the same level. If Alavés keep losing the ball soon after winning it back, they will have to defend Atlético's attacks more often.
Koski's fitness could affect the starting point of that sequence. If he is out, Alavés may struggle to play an accurate first pass out from the back. Atlético could press higher, win the ball there and create a chance from close range without needing a long build-up. Against Osasuna, Kang-in Lee won the ball himself and exchanged passes with teammates before scoring. Even if Koski plays, it remains to be seen whether he can maintain the same level throughout the match after his recovery.
Atlético's starting selection could also change how they create chances in the first half and after the break. If Kang-in Lee starts, they can use the pattern seen repeatedly against Real Madrid from the outset: Lee's forward pass, Giuliano Simeone's cross and David's finish. If Atlético rest Lee or Julián Álvarez from the start, their early link-up play could be weaker, but they would have new attacking options to bring on later. Sørloth would give them another target for crosses into the box. He has not played this season, so his minutes and form remain to be seen.
Alavés also have set pieces as a route to goal. Simeone has spoken directly about the opposition's aerial threat, and Alavés can create battles in the box from corners or free-kicks even when focused on defending. Atlético conceded a headed goal from a late free-kick against Real Madrid. If Alavés score first, they can keep their defensive shape and protect the lead. If the match stays 0-0 for a long time, Atlético's attacking substitutions will remain a threat while Alavés stick to their plan of defending for a point.
3. Final view and conclusion
The market leans towards an away win, pointing to Atlético's second-place standing, three straight league wins and a full travelling squad. Those are real results, but two of the three wins only opened up late or after an opposition sending-off. A full squad could also add more to Atlético's options off the bench than to their starting XI with Manchester United coming up. That is why we would be cautious about carrying their recent scoring form into the opening stages while Alavés keep numbers behind the ball.
If Boyé is fit to play normally, we expect a 1-1 draw. Alavés can look for a goal from a Pérez cross on the right or from a set piece, while Atlético respond by changing their attacking approach with substitutions after the break. Quique could keep his defensive numbers in place even if the score is level, and Atlético's positional rotations will only work if they can move the ball forward against three centre-backs. We therefore expect a slow start rather than goals coming in quick succession. Atlético's bench increases their chances of scoring, but if Alavés can turn defence into attack first, it is hard to see either side taking all three points.
If Boyé is out, we expect a 0-1 win for Atlético. The same result becomes more likely if he plays but is not fully fit. Alavés may be able to keep the match balanced early on, but if they lose the player who holds up the ball up front, they could spend longer having to defend again after the break. Atlético are more likely to find a goal with the attacking options they bring on. The forecast would change significantly if Kang-in Lee starts and Koski is out, allowing Atlético's press and attacks down the right to produce a goal before the 60th minute. If Alavés fall behind and push forward, Atlético will also have more chances to add another.
