[2026 UEFA Nations League] Malta vs Andorra: Preview and analysis Kick-off: October 5, 01:00 KST
Malta and Andorra meet in UEFA Nations League League D, Group 1 at the Ta' Qali National Stadium in Malta at 1:00 a.m. KST on October 5. It is a rematch just 10 days after Malta came from behind to win 2-1 away to Andorra. Both teams have already secured promotion to League C for the next edition, but Malta are looking to tighten their grip on top spot while Andorra are chasing their first win over Malta.
1. Match overview and team form
Malta lead the group with 4 points from 2 matches, having won once and drawn once. Andorra have 1 point from a draw and a defeat. A Malta win would take them to 7 points and open up a 5-point gap over second-placed Gibraltar. In the first meeting, Malta fell behind in the 17th minute, then Teddy Teuma and Irvin Cardona combined for an equaliser in the 36th minute and the winner in the 81st. Andorra had chances of their own, but could not hold on for a draw.
Record in this Nations League campaign Malta: 1 win, 1 draw / Andorra: 1 draw, 1 defeat Goals for and against: Malta 3-2 / Andorra 1-2 Shots per match: Malta 14.5 / Andorra 8.5 Average possession: Malta 64% / Andorra 51%
Malta lead on shots and possession, but have conceded in both matches. Against Andorra, Moisés San Nicolás and Aarón Rodrigo linked up down Malta's right before Rodrigo's shot was turned in by Guillaume López. Against Gibraltar, James Scanlon drove forward through the middle to score the equaliser. Even if Malta control the game again, Andorra's ability to threaten with a single attack is a reason for caution.
Malta's recent results have improved. Since September, they have won away to Andorra and beaten Liechtenstein in a friendly, then drawn 1-1 with Gibraltar. The step down to League D opposition has played a part. Still, Malta managed only one goal against Gibraltar despite taking 17 shots, 12 of them inside the box. BBC statistics show they attempted 37 crosses and had 41 touches in the opposition box. Gibraltar focused on clearing the ball around the penalty area, yet Malta still failed to make enough of their scoring chances.
Andorra drew 0-0 away to the same Gibraltar side. They had 11 shots and 4 on target, and in the 73rd minute they managed 4 shots in a single attack. Their lack of goals cannot be explained by a shortage of chances alone. But according to DataCentre's venue-by-venue records, Andorra have scored just 2 goals in their last 10 away games, and both came in a single match against Latvia. Turning chances into goals remains a challenge for this match too.
The two coaches have handled their squads differently. Emilio De Leo rested all 11 starters from the first Andorra match for the Liechtenstein friendly, then made only 2 changes for the competitive game against Gibraltar, bringing his regulars back in. Malta line up in a 4-2-3-1, with Teuma behind the forwards and Ilyas Chouaref and Ryan Camenzuli pushing on from the left. Koldo adjusts Andorra's defensive shape according to the opponent. In the first meeting, they tried to block Malta's passing from two banks of four in a 4-4-2. Against Gibraltar, they kept more of the ball and attacked.
Andorra are expected to have a different lineup from the first meeting. MightyTips reported on October 2 that central midfielder Eric Izquierdo is suspended after picking up bookings in both of the team's matches in this campaign. Bondia reported on September 29 that midfielder Pau Babot and forward Gerard Soler had joined the under-21 squad. It has not been stated that either player will miss the Malta match, but the game falls between the under-21 team's fixtures against Moldova and Slovakia, making their availability unlikely. If both Babot and Izquierdo are out, Andorra will need to change the pairing that screened the defence in their last two matches. Soler was the player who created a chance with an individual run early in the first meeting.
Joseph Mbong's fitness is a question for Malta. He scored the opener against Gibraltar from Chouaref's cross, but the Gibraltar Chronicle reported that he was substituted after picking up an injury in a challenge on October 1 local time. If he cannot play, Paul Mbong, who started the first meeting, could take his place. Joseph Mbong's availability would affect how Malta look to finish crosses from the left at the far post.
Malta are unbeaten against Andorra in the 7 recorded meetings between them, with 3 wins and 4 draws. But the only time Emilio De Leo faced Koldo as Malta coach was the first meeting in September. The low-scoring history and unbeaten record do not necessarily tell us how the current tactical matchup will play out. Malta's regulars are back in action around 3 days after facing Gibraltar, and some of Andorra's starters also featured as substitutes in the friendly against Lithuania. Andorra have travelled to Malta via Lithuania in the meantime. The forecast for kick-off in Ta' Qali is dry with light winds, so the weather is unlikely to have much impact on either side's passing or crossing.
2. Matchup analysis
The key question is how Andorra's new midfield will handle the link between Teuma and Cardona. In the 36th minute of the first meeting, Teuma played a pass from near the halfway line and Cardona took it on, beat 2 defenders and scored. In the 81st minute, Cardona sent the ball into the box from near the byline for Teuma to score the winner. They combined again after the break to set up Cardona's backheel shot. This time, Babot and Izquierdo, who helped deal with that connection, are both expected to be absent.
Andorra could drop deeper to deny Cardona space to receive the ball. When Gibraltar focused on clearing the ball around the box against Malta, Cardona had 3 shots but none on target. If Andorra take a similar approach, Malta will need to find ways through beyond central passes. Teuma can receive the ball in front of the defence while Chouaref and Camenzuli push forward down the left, looking for crosses or fouls near the box. Malta's goal against Gibraltar also came when Joseph Mbong finished a cross from Chouaref on the left.
Andorra's use of fouls to break up attacks could shape that battle on the flank. They committed 23 fouls away to Gibraltar, and Bondia reported on September 27 local time that Babot repeatedly stopped Gibraltar's dangerous player, Tjay De Barr, with fouls. If Chouaref faces the same treatment, Malta could win free kicks near the box. He won a penalty in the first meeting. If Babot is absent, another player will have to take over his role in aerial duels at set pieces. Malta also struggled in aerial duels against Gibraltar, so winning a set piece and scoring from it are separate questions.
As Malta attack through the middle and on the left, Andorra will look to counter down their own left. San Nicolás and Rodrigo combined for the opener in the first meeting and are expected to feature again. But Malta's right-back then was Zach Muscat. De Leo replaced him with Juan Carlos Corbalán at half-time, and Corbalán started against Gibraltar. If Andorra try the same move again, Corbalán's response will be worth watching. If Joseph Mbong moves inside from the right wing, Malta will also need to share the defensive work when San Nicolás pushes forward.
Andorra created chances with their second-half substitutions against Gibraltar. Ot Remolins and Albert Rosas came on in the 62nd minute and were involved in later attacks. In the first meeting, Rosas and Alex Martínez both got shots away soon after coming on. Remolins could start in Babot's place and Rosas in Soler's. That would mean Koldo has to start players who have helped change the game in the second half over the last 2 matches. If Andorra keep the score level for a long time, their starting lineup will determine whether they can use the same attacking boost in the 60s.
Malta also have decisions to make about their second-half approach. De Leo waited until the 73rd minute to make his first substitution after Malta conceded an equaliser against Gibraltar in the 61st. In the first Andorra match, he changed midfield and wide attacking players in the 74th and 75th minutes, and substitute Kion Ewurum soon found himself through on goal. If Malta create plenty of chances but remain at 0-0, when to change the starting attack will matter. If they take an early lead, they will need to avoid allowing the kind of central run that Gibraltar made shortly after Malta went ahead.
Goalkeeper Iker Álvarez will also be important if Andorra are to keep this close. In the first meeting, he saved Teuma's long-range effort, Cardona's backheel and Ewurum's one-on-one chance. Malta scored twice in that match and also missed a penalty. If Andorra sit deep in front of the box and Álvarez saves another big chance, the score could stay tight even if Malta spend long spells on top. If Andorra's new midfield repeatedly gives Teuma time on the ball, Álvarez may face more shots to deal with.
3. Final view and prediction
We expect Malta to have more of the ball while Andorra defend in front of their box. If Andorra push their defensive line higher, Teuma and Cardona can combine through the middle as they did in the first meeting. If they sit deep, Malta will turn to Chouaref's crosses and set pieces. Andorra still have the San Nicolás-Rodrigo link on the left, but their away scoring record and expected changes to the squad, including Soler, give us little reason to expect them to turn that attack into multiple clear chances.
The market favours Malta and a low total, pointing to their place at the top of the group, their unbeaten record against Andorra and Andorra's poor away scoring form. We see the same basic match shape. The difference in our view is the roles of the players Andorra are expected to miss. Babot and Izquierdo's absence could affect their ability to stop Malta's central passing, while the loss of Babot and Soler could also affect aerial duels and their ability to move the ball out of their own half. With those roles missing together, we see a greater chance of Malta opening up a bigger margin than settling for a one-goal win.
Our predicted score is Malta 2-0. Malta could take the lead through the Teuma-Cardona connection or a set piece involving Chouaref, then add a second after the break, perhaps through a substitute or a corner. De Leo's tendency to keep his regulars in the lineup for competitive matches gives Malta a basis for bringing back their familiar attacking combination. Andorra's new midfield will have to stop the passing moves that helped Malta score twice in the first meeting, while Koldo did not make major defensive changes even after falling behind in that match. If Andorra score first through their left-sided link-up as they did early in the first meeting, Malta will have to commit more players forward, leaving them to deal with Andorra's runs through the middle when possession turns over.
