[2026 UEFA Nations League] Croatia vs England: Match Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 4, 01:00 (Korea time)
Croatia and England meet at Stadion Rujevica in Rijeka at 01:00 Korea time on October 4 for their third UEFA Nations League League A Group 3 match. Both have one win, one loss and three points. Spain lead the group with six points, so the loser will have a tougher time catching them in the remaining matches.
1. Match overview and team form
Croatia beat the Czech Republic 2-1 away in Slaven Bilić’s first match in charge, but made six changes to the starting XI three days later and lost 1-4 to Spain. Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovačić started together against the Czechs, helping Croatia keep the ball, and Modrić drove forward to score the opener himself. Against Spain, Modrić came on in the 81st minute. Croatia equalised in the 28th minute through an Ivan Perišić cross, only to concede again from a corner three minutes later. Bilić criticised both the defending and the team’s attacking intent after the match. Whether Croatia can rediscover their Czech Republic performance against England will depend on the line-up.
England lost 2-3 to Spain before beating the Czech Republic 2-0 away. They led Spain 2-1 but conceded an equaliser after a passing error in their own half. Against the Czechs, their opponents had been down to 10 men since the 25th minute. So the win alone does not prove England have solved their defensive problems. Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane have both scored in each of England’s two Nations League matches, though. Gordon’s counter-attacking runs and movement down the flank, along with Kane’s headers and finishing in the box, are threats Croatia will need to contain.
Category Nations League start: Croatia beat the Czech Republic 2-1 and lost 1-4 to Spain / England lost 2-3 to Spain and beat the Czech Republic 2-0 Attacking focal points: Croatia’s left-sided crosses from Perišić and Martin Baturina’s runs from midfield / England’s goals from Kane and Gordon, wide attacks and counter-attacks Key selection questions: Josko Gvardiol’s position and availability for Croatia / England’s midfield combination without Declan Rice
Croatia’s defensive absences and the possible return of attacking options will shape their selection against England. Josip Juranović and Martin Erlić are unavailable, so the back line needs to be reshuffled. Gvardiol played both previous matches, and whether he starts at centre-back, fills in at left-back or gets a rest will affect who marks Kane and where Perišić plays. Baturina and Josip Stanišić, who missed out with a virus, have rejoined the squad. Their return does not guarantee a start, but Baturina’s presence would give Croatia another attacking option to receive the ball between England’s midfield and defence.
England are without Rice and Kobbie Mainoo, while Nico O’Reilly has returned to his club. Rice’s absence is especially significant: he breaks up opposition attacks in front of the defence and takes set pieces. James Garner and Alex Scott, both tipped to partner Elliot Anderson in midfield, have never started a competitive international. Marc Guéhi is likely to start, and Ezri Konsa has completed full training. Thomas Tuchel used James Trafford in the previous two matches, but reports suggest Jordan Pickford is set to start against Croatia, in line with the plan made at the start of the camp.
England won the most recent meeting 4-2 in the 2026 World Cup group stage. The score was 2-2 at half-time, before England added two more goals after the break. In the data centre’s match record, England had an expected goals figure of 3.20 to Croatia’s 0.70. England created more chances, though Croatia also turned a limited number of opportunities into two goals. Bilić was not Croatia’s manager then, and Rice and Marcus Rashford, both involved in England’s goals, are absent this time. The 4-2 scoreline cannot simply be carried over because it is the same fixture.
The venue also calls for some caution. Croatia have won 8 and drawn 1 of their last nine home competitive matches, but few of those came against top opposition, and ordinary fans will be barred for this match because of a UEFA sanction. Around 5,500 to 6,000 invited children aged 14 and under, their guardians and a small number of England supporters are expected to attend. England’s eight-match winning run in competitive away games also includes four World Cup matches designated as away fixtures. Neither record is enough on its own to decide which team has the edge here. Croatia host Spain three days later, while England face the Czech Republic on the same day. That schedule will also factor into how Bilić manages Modrić’s minutes.
2. Match-up analysis
Croatia’s left flank and England’s right will bring the teams’ main attacking routes into direct competition. Perišić’s crosses from the left set up Croatia’s winner against the Czech Republic and their equaliser against Spain. Trent Alexander-Arnold also supplied Gordon’s opener against the Czechs with a low cross from the right. If Perišić plays further forward with Gvardiol supporting from behind, Croatia can force Alexander-Arnold and Bukayo Saka to track back. But if Perišić drops into left-back, he will also have to deal with Saka and Alexander-Arnold when they surge forward to deliver crosses. Bilić’s choice for those two positions on the left will affect both Croatia’s chances of scoring and their ability to defend the flank.
Croatia must also contain Gordon on the opposite side. He scored on the counter against Spain and made a far-post run to head in against the Czech Republic. Stanišić could return at right-back, but even if he starts, Croatia will have to deal with Gordon and Lewis Hall together if their winger does not track Hall’s forward runs. England can create attacks down the left too, so Croatia cannot commit all their resources to Perišić’s flank.
In midfield, both teams need to find ways to play through the press. Bilić wants his side to press high and send centre-backs forward. England conceded against Spain after Marc Guéhi lost the ball in his own half, while Anderson’s error in possession gave the Czech Republic a chance early in their match. Croatia could create a similar opening if England’s midfield, without Rice, comes under pressure. But two matches under Bilić are not enough to conclude that Croatia can win the ball back as consistently as Spain. The possession and shot advantage they had against the Czech Republic do not prove that their high press was effective either.
Kovačić’s ability to carry the ball offers Croatia a way through England’s press. If he breaks out of pressure, Baturina can receive the ball between England’s midfield and defence and drive the attack forward. In the World Cup meeting, Baturina scored after receiving Petar Sučić’s pass in that area. England are without Rice, who would usually be responsible for protecting that space. But if Croatia lose the ball with their defenders pushed up, the danger runs the other way. England can break quickly, as they did when Gordon scored against Spain, with Gordon and Saka ready to run in behind.
Kane’s movement will also force Croatia’s centre-backs to make a decision. If he drops off the front line to receive the ball, they must choose whether to follow him or hold their position. Jude Bellingham and Gordon can run into the space behind a defender who steps out. Gvardiol is likely to face that decision if he plays at centre-back; another pairing will have to handle Kane if he starts at left-back or is rested. Croatia also conceded against Spain after failing to defend a cross following a short corner. Rice, England’s usual set-piece taker, is unavailable, so they cannot simply expect a repeat of the set-piece goals from the previous meeting. Still, Croatia have reason to review their positioning and aerial defending.
The difference between the starting XIs and the substitutes could grow as the match wears on. In their last three defeats to England, Portugal and Spain, Croatia were level or behind by one goal at half-time, but were outscored 6-1 in the second half. Against England, a 2-2 half-time score became a 4-2 defeat. Bilić changed three attackers in the 63rd minute against the Czech Republic, and Croatia went on to score the winner. Against Spain, he took Kovačić off in the 60th minute with Croatia trailing 2-1 and brought on an attacker; Spain scored again three minutes later. Attacking substitutions have not always produced the same result. How long Modrić and Kovačić play together, and who protects the defence after the changes, will matter.
England also add more attackers as matches progress. Tuchel took off a defensive midfielder at half-time against the Czech Republic, with the score still 0-0, and brought on Eberechi Eze. He also has attacking options such as Morgan Rogers and Morgan Gibbs-White to use from the bench. Croatia can turn to Ante Budimir and Marco Pašalić, among others, but must also think about Spain three days later and managing Modrić’s minutes. If the score is level at half-time, Bilić could take the game to England as he did against the Czechs. If England are ahead, Croatia may need to sacrifice a midfielder to chase the match, which could give England’s attackers more chances to extend the lead.
3. Final verdict and conclusion
We expect England to win, though Croatia have a good chance of scoring. Croatia can test an England midfield without Rice through the returning Baturina and Perišić’s threat down the left. England can create chances in several ways through Kane and Gordon, and can attack the space behind Croatia if their defenders push forward or the midfield is thinned out in pursuit of an equaliser. Croatia have turned a small number of chances into goals against strong opponents, so a game in which both teams score looks more likely than one where either side dominates from the start.
The market leaned further towards England after Croatia’s 1-4 defeat to Spain and England’s 2-0 win over the Czech Republic. But Croatia made six changes to their starting XI against Spain, and England’s opponents had been down to 10 men since the 25th minute in their win. With Baturina and Stanišić potentially returning, and space to target in a midfield without Rice, England do not look as certain to win as the market suggests. We still lean towards England because Croatia have to manage their players ahead of the Spain match three days later, and if Bilić sacrifices midfielders to chase the game, England’s attackers could find further openings.
Our score predictions are Croatia 1-3 England or Croatia 2-4 England. Even if Croatia score in the first hour through a Perišić cross or a Baturina run, we think Kane and England’s attacking substitutes are more likely to exploit the space in front of Croatia’s centre-backs and midfield after the 60th to 75th minute and stretch the scoreline. That said, England’s second-half advantage may not translate into the result we expect if Croatia score first, Modrić and Kovačić keep possession together beyond the 70th minute, and Bilić holds off on attacking substitutions that thin out the midfield.
