Two teams coming off a rough week, but the reasons behind the losses are not the same. Adelaide's recent defeats read more like shooting swings than a team falling apart, and that is what I am leaning on here.
At New Zealand, Adelaide went 6 for 29 from three. Against Illawarra, the other side hit 15 of 31 from deep on the way to 114 points. Those are nights that swing a game. Adelaide also shoots a lot of threes, at about 35 percent over the games I could check, and it hit 15 of 31 and 14 of 38 in two wins.
Melbourne's recent box scores point the other way. Cairns beat them with 15 made threes and 26 free throws, and Tasmania took them by two. Melbourne has shot only about 27 percent from three itself over the sampled games, and it keeps giving up long-range volume. A team that lives on threes meets a defence that leaks them.
The home and away splits help too. Over the last 20 games Adelaide won 9 of 11 at home, while Melbourne won only 5 of 10 on the road. Adelaide also won the first meeting of this season 97-95, even though Melbourne leads the longer head-to-head record.
Melbourne is the name side, with Cole Anthony scoring in bunches, and that is already in the market. What I do not think is fully counted is how much of both teams' bad week came from who shot well against them.
