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Both of these matches pair open, high-event teams with thin back lines, so goals at both ends are the natural shape.

Two matches where the visitors look the more complete side on the pitch, even if neither is a lock. In both, the home team's defensive structure is the thing under pressure, and the draw is a real outcome that has to be respected.

Hibernian's loss to Falkirk is a useful warning against reading possession as control: they reached the box often, yet spent much of the match chasing a two-goal deficit. Celtic's big league win over Hearts points the other way, but Celta then limited their attacking volume. In this matchup I want to see whether Hibs can turn repeat entries into chances without leaving Celtic an easy route back through midfield. That exchange feels more revealing than either last scoreline.

Celtic are top of the league with only five goals conceded, yet they come to Easter Road with a defence our absence list says is stretched, and with two losses in a row to Rangers behind them. Hibs are bottom, have scored only nine league goals, and have a new manager looking for a first result. So I'd frame this as a question: does a rotated Celtic back line give a blunt Hibs attack anything real to work with, or is the problem simply that Hibs struggle to create at all?

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Hoffenheim's improvement comes from coordinated pressure and quick combinations after the ball is won. Leverkusen bring a functioning central partnership that can turn a successful escape into an immediate box attack. The key contest is the first pass beyond pressure and the defensive recovery that follows it.

Palace and Newcastle have working wide supply that meets recent weaknesses in cross pressure and tracking. Both have allowed opponents to continue attacks after an initial defensive action. Atalanta against Frosinone adds a contest between pressing the first pass and finding receivers beyond that pressure.

Monaco's quick forward receptions meet a Lille side that has recently allowed deliveries and runners into decisive areas. Lille retain their own passing and wide combinations through the striker absences. In Manchester, Bournemouth's first pressure directly engages United's recent difficulty protecting the next central reception.

Hull's deep defending depends on the first forward pass sticking so nearby runners can join it. Brentford have several recently demonstrated ways to keep attacks moving through central and wide receivers. At Anfield, Brighton's expected league unit brings central combinations into a contest with Liverpool's aggressive pressure and forward running.

NEC's advancing players create several receiving positions while leaving space behind their pressure. Groningen retain connections capable of taking the ball into that space. Genoa against Venezia turns on a different question: whether home possession can move a compact midfield without losing cover against a direct outlet.

Inter's alternative wide combinations have already produced completed attacks and goals. Fiorentina's midfield and crossing give them a route back through the space behind the wingbacks. At San Mamés, the central contest is Athletic's repeated wide access against Getafe's reorganised marking and clearances.

Fortuna have several ways to find Descotte without controlling possession for long spells. Excelsior's wide connections meet a home defence that has recently struggled with deliveries and follow-up pressure. PSV against Feyenoord presents a separate contest in which the pass beyond the first press can quickly expose the next defender.

Shonan and Tochigi bring forward connections that test the space around advancing fullbacks. Their recent games also show how attacking changes can keep the pressure going after the interval. In Yokohama, the pitching handover and conversion of baserunners look more decisive than the series opener's final margin.

Frosinone can move from a midfield recovery to a forward reception without needing long spells of possession. Atalanta have a working low-delivery route through Bellanova and Krstović, with a replacement central defence handling the play behind it. The first reception and the next loose ball should give this match its shape.

Bournemouth's most useful recent pattern starts with coordinated pressure and continues through Evanilson's hold-up play. Manchester United have shown dangerous forward bursts through Tielemans and their running attackers. The central contest is whether United can connect the next exit before Bournemouth recover and attack again.