This one looks like a low-scoring game, and the price has drifted toward the home side more than the standings and the head-to-head justify. The league leaders arrive with the best run prevention in the division against a DeNA lineup that has been scoring about three and a half runs a game over its last ten. What the game turns on is who owns the middle innings once the starters are gone.
The starters are Taira for DeNA and Ito for Hanshin. Ito lasted only two innings in his last outing against Yakult and has not faced DeNA in about a year, so a short night is possible. But his season ERA of 3.23 is close to Taira's 3.41, and one bad start does not change the picture of a rotation and bullpen that has allowed 431 runs this season against 511 for Yokohama.
Hanshin has also taken seven of the last ten meetings, including 8-3 and 8-1 wins at this very ground two weeks ago. DeNA did win 2-1 in between, which shows how tight these games can be when Taira pitches well, and he has been very good against this opponent at Koshien.
The timing matters too. Hanshin lost at Hiroshima the day before, so the title is still not clinched: one win, or a Giants loss, finishes it. That is a clear reason to send out the regular lineup and push for the win right away. DeNA, for its part, beat Yomiuri on the road the day before and is chasing a postseason place, so this is no throwaway game for either side. I see Hanshin's pitching depth as the edge in a game that will be decided by a run or two.
