Vitoria’s status as a heavy favourite masks a severe underlying defensive crisis. With up to five of their regular defenders sidelined by injury, their backline is incredibly fragile. Chapecoense may be struggling at the bottom of the table, but they are well-positioned to exploit this makeshift defence and keep the game tight or strike on the counter.
Despite enjoying a lengthy rest period, Vitoria’s recent form has been disastrous, having lost seven of their last ten matches. Their historical ability to win convincingly is also poor; they have failed to clear a one-goal margin in fifteen of their last twenty games.
Chapecoense has shown recently that they can grind out results away from home, securing consecutive draws in tough environments. Given Vitoria’s depleted squad and lack of momentum, relying on them to cover a handicap margin is a mistake. The setup heavily favours the visitors keeping this competitive.
