Vitória are strong at the Barradão, but their recent attacks have struggled to turn shots into clear chances. Chapecoense can still get forward through their direct front line when they spend long spells without the ball. My call turns on whether Vitória can create and sustain a comfortable margin, and the recent chance quality gives me reason to doubt that they will.
Against Cruzeiro, Vitória took 21 shots but generated only 0.50 expected goals; 13 of those attempts came from outside the box. Their last five home games brought just three goals, even though their season-long home record remains good.
Chapecoense's projected attack keeps Marcinho, Garcez and Túlio Eduardo together. Túlio Eduardo scored in the draw at Atlético-MG, showing that the visitors have an outlet even in a match where they see little of the ball. Vitória have had a long break, yet Camutanga, Ramon and Nathan Mendes are still absent, leaving Jair Ventura to work around gaps in his usual defensive options.
