Vitória versus the bottom club looks like a mismatch on the table, but the way these two sides actually play points to a cramped, stop-start game. Vitória are at their best reacting, not carrying the ball, and Chapecoense on the road are happy to sit deep and give it to them. My read turns on that handover: Vitória being forced to break down a block is exactly where their attack has looked weakest lately.
Vitória's scoring has dried up. They have averaged 0.6 goals across their last ten games and have not hit three in any of them. Their recent home wins were both 1-0, against Grêmio and Botafogo, with less than half the ball each time.
The one recent home game where they had to push, the 3-1 loss to Cruzeiro, tells the story: 21 shots, 13 of them from outside the box, and only about half an expected goal in total. Lots of volume, very little that actually threatened.
Chapecoense away from home are a low-possession team. They had 34% of the ball at Atlético-MG and 38% at Corinthians, with seven shots in each game. They have scored 11 times in 14 away league games. Local reports also list eight players missing, including Heitor, who set up a goal in their win at Corinthians, plus midfielders Max Alves and Rafael Carvalheira. That leaves them mostly relying on a quick break through Marcinho or Garcez.
Yes, Chapecoense concede a lot this season, but most of that damage came against sharper attacks than this one. When these sides met in April it ended 1-1. With Vitória under pressure to get a result and Chapecoense set up to absorb, I expect long spells of patient, blunt possession rather than an open game.
