Milano have the better roster, but this is an awkward spot for them. They flew back from a heavy loss in Vitoria on Saturday, play on a Monday, and the local previews expect a lot of turnover. I think Verona, playing their first home game back in the top flight, can keep this closer than the market spread suggests, and that is the point my read turns on.
The Milano preview talks about three foreigners sitting in the stands, Moses Wright possibly getting a night off, and the Italians Tonut, Akele and Diop coming back into the rotation. Tonut did not play in either Euroleague game last week. That is a lot of rotation for a team that has played twice in one week, both games physically draining. Nobody is injured, so it is a coach's choice, but it does soften the gap on paper.
Verona lost their opener at Tortona 93-101, yet they scored 93 without their foreign players. Andrew Andrews, the experienced point guard, is back for this one, and Mike Tobey gave them a double-double inside last week. They are missing Izaiah Brockington with a calf problem, which is a real loss, but the core of Zampini, Loro and Ambrosin is solid. The two sides met in a scrimmage on 1 September and Milano won it 76-75, so a tight game between them is not a stretch.
The recent cover numbers lean the same way, with Verona covering a similar spread in most of their last ten games and Milano rarely doing so. I would not lean on that much, because a lot of it comes from last season in the second tier. It is a side note, not the reason for the pick. The rotation talk and the short turnaround are what I am going on.
