Two matches where the numbers describe a clear shape. In Venice, a top side that owns the ball and the shot count meets the league's weakest attack. In Rotterdam, two defences that leak chances meet in a cup tie where neither side tends to keep a clean sheet.
Venezia v Inter. Inter average about 23 shots and close to three expected goals per game, and they scored three, three, two and three in their recent league games. Venezia create only about 1.6 expected goals, have scored 6 in 8 league games, and their one recent win, over Napoli, came with 29% possession and far fewer chances than the opponent. Their striker Adorante is out, and the defender Correia too, while Inter's defensive absentees Pavard, Stones and Jones were already missing in recent games, so the output we see already includes them. Inter should hold the ball, Venezia will defend deep, and the first goal most likely comes early enough to force Venezia open. That is why I'm siding with Inter to win by a clear margin.
Sparta Rotterdam v Sittard. Sparta have conceded in every one of their last ten games, 2.4 per game, and their results (two wins in ten) are weaker than their home name suggests. Sittard create little, about 0.9 expected goals, but they have scored in eight of ten and finish efficiently on counters, while giving up 18 shots a game. The two league meetings this season ended 1-1 and 2-2. Sparta will have the ball and shots, Sittard will sit and break, and rotation three days after league games tends to loosen both back lines. That's why I'm on both sides scoring.
