[2026-27 English Premier League] Brentford vs Nottingham Forest preview and analysis Kick-off: 31 October, 15:00 UTC
Sixth meets 18th, but the teams’ recent performances have been closer than the table suggests. Brentford have given up plenty of chances even in games where they earned a point, while Nottingham Forest created opportunities away from home but failed to win.
1. Match overview and team form
Keith Andrews’ Brentford attack by stretching the defence with Dango Ouattara and Kevin Schade out wide, while Mathias Jensen links play to Igor Jesus (Africa Foot, 30 October). Jesus can finish chances himself, and also creates openings for teammates with crosses and second balls. Brentford have lost only once in eight league games, but have won just twice. In the 2-2 draw with Aston Villa, their expected goals were 1.06 and expected goals against were 2.28. Against AFC Bournemouth, the figures were 0.5 and 1.75 in another 2-2 draw. They have not defended opponents’ attacks as well as their league position might suggest.
Their recent concession against Hull City came after Aaron Hickey lost the ball under pressure following a short pass from Caoimhín Kelleher. If Brentford play out from the back again today, Forest can test them in the same way. Yehor Yarmolyuk is suspended, so Mamadou Sangaré and Vitaly Janelt are expected to handle progression through midfield and stopping counterattacks. Brentford made eight changes to their starting lineup in the EFL Cup three days ago, bringing on Jensen, Ouattara and Schade in the second half. The first-choice attackers had their minutes managed, though Jesus and some of the central players also featured. Andrews expects Nottingham Forest to be their toughest opponent of the recent run (Brentford, 30 October).
Oliver Glasner’s Nottingham Forest are 18th in the league, but all six of their goals have come away from home. Their expected goals have topped 2 in each of their four away games, adding up to 9.86, while they have scored six. The gap between chance creation and finishing has shown up in their league position. Against Ipswich Town, they took the lead through Daniel Muñoz’s cross from the right and a run from a defender on the far side, then conceded an equaliser after a defensive error. They also went ahead early against Crystal Palace but failed to add to their lead and lost. Glasner also pointed to the final phase of their attacking play as an area to improve (Babel, 16 October). Dan Ndoye is a doubt. If he misses out, Forest will have fewer runners getting in behind alongside Morgan Gibbs-White (Sports Mole, 29 October). Nottingham Forest have had eight days to prepare for this match.
2. Matchup analysis
The first key battle is Muñoz’s advances down the right against Keane Lewis-Potter and Schade on Brentford’s left. Ipswich’s goal came from a move where a defender on the far side joined the attack as Muñoz crossed. If Lewis-Potter and Schade push forward together and Brentford lose the ball, Forest can target that flank. On the other hand, if Schade pins Muñoz back in his own half, Forest’s main attacking route will be limited. If Ndoye plays, he could also make more runs in behind after Muñoz’s passes.
The second battle is Brentford’s build-up from the back against Forest’s press, and Jesus’ aerial duels in front of the opposite goal. If Gibbs-White and James McAtee quickly close down the central player receiving Kelleher’s short pass, Brentford could face the same danger as against Hull City. If they bypass the press with long balls, Jesus will have to compete for the first ball against Nikola Milenković, Morato and Murillo. Forest have had a defensive error against Ipswich and conceded from a corner against Crystal Palace. Jesus could win the ball and lay it off to a teammate, or Janelt could deliver an accurate corner, giving Brentford a route to goal. Both teams need to find a way to add to a lead and manage the game after going in front.
3. Prediction and conclusion
We expect a draw with both teams scoring. Brentford can target Forest’s handling of aerial balls and their set-piece defending through Jesus. Forest have also created chances consistently away from home, and Muñoz’s forward runs and Brentford’s short passes out from the back can give them opportunities. But Brentford have not done enough to contain opponents after taking the lead, and Forest have failed to turn their away chances into the extra goal needed to seal a win.
The market gives Brentford the edge because they are at home, sit sixth and have lost only once in the league, while also allowing for Forest’s attacking threat on the road. We put more weight on the gap between Brentford’s expected goals and expected goals against in their draws, and on how both teams have conceded equalisers or comebacks after taking the lead. Each side has attacking tools that can exploit the other’s recent concessions, so the gap between them is unlikely to be as wide as the table suggests. If Ndoye plays and adds runs in behind alongside Gibbs-White, Forest’s chances of an away win improve. For now, we expect both teams to score, with neither able to hold on to a lead.
[Final picks · by market · Betman lines] Full-time result: Draw. Both teams have struggled to close out games after taking the lead, and today’s attacking routes run straight at those weaknesses: Jesus in the air and Muñoz’s crosses. Handicap -1: Away. This follows our view that Brentford will not win. A midfield without Yarmolyuk and an opponent who have had eight days to rest could make it harder for Brentford to manage the game after taking the lead. Handicap -2: Away. Brentford have not won in their last four competitive matches and have not turned a lead into a win with another goal. Forest’s threat down the flanks remains. Over/under 2.5: Over. The teams have several ways to concede, including attacks down the flanks, aerial duels and mistakes playing short from the back. Forest’s expected goals have been above 2 in every away game.
