Utah and Memphis meet again four days after Memphis won by twenty, and the shape of that game still looks like the shape of this one. Utah has been giving up about 125 points a game in the regular season, while Memphis has shot well, lived at the free-throw line and gone 3-0 with a clearly better scoring margin.
The main matchup is Memphis's interior and depth against a Utah side without its centre. Memphis used a deep rotation in its last two games, with bench players getting real minutes, and Boozer's perfect night at the line showed how it wins: it gets to the line and makes its shots. Utah scores in bursts, averaging 34 in the first quarter, then fades through the middle of the game.
Memphis is on the second night of a back-to-back after Sacramento, and Edey and Lopez are listed as doubtful, so the rim presence is still an open question. Utah has its own question with Alexander. Even so, Utah has lost two in a row and its defence is the reason, not bad luck.
I expect Utah to lead early at home and Memphis to take over in the second half on depth and free throws. That's why I'm siding with Memphis to win outright, at a small size.
