[26-27 DFB-Pokal] SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart Preview Kick-off: October 28, 17:00 UTC
SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart meet at Home Deluxe Arena in the second round of the DFB-Pokal on October 28 at 17:00 UTC. Stuttgart won 2-0 at this same stadium in the league 18 days ago. This time, a spot in the round of 16 is on the line in a single-leg knockout tie.
1. Match Overview and Current Form
Paderborn earned promotion from the 2. Bundesliga last season and sit 12th in the table as of October 27. Stuttgart remain in 15th place. Beyond their positions in the standings, the two sides present completely different profiles. Paderborn produce few scoring chances, while Stuttgart create plenty while also conceding numerous opportunities at the other end.
Over 7 league matches this season: Standings and points (October 27): Paderborn 12th (8 pts) / Stuttgart 15th (6 pts) Goals scored and conceded: Paderborn 6-9 / Stuttgart 10-13 Expected goals and expected goals conceded: Paderborn 6.71 xG, 11.42 xGA / Stuttgart 13.00 xG, 17.00 xGA
Goalkeeper Nahuel Noll's shot-stopping is the main reason Paderborn have conceded fewer goals than their xGA suggests. Away to Werder Bremen, Paderborn gave up 2.79 xG to their opponents, but Noll's string of saves preserved a 2-2 draw. Coach Kettemann stated he will announce the starting goalkeeper on matchday. Markus Schubert started in the first round. If Noll does not start, his strong league numbers cannot be factored into the outlook for this match.
Paderborn's attack has recently produced results through long balls, set pieces, and contributions from substitutes. In their 3-1 win over Hoffenheim, a long pass from the goalkeeper held up in the final third led to a cross from out wide and a goal. Against Werder Bremen, they scored twice from a quick break right after forcing a turnover and a long throw-in. In their recent match against Hamburger SV, they failed to register a shot on target in the first half, but Baack and Götze boosted the attack after coming on in the second half before fellow substitute Philippe scored the 88th-minute winner. They have struggled to consistently carve out chances against deep defensive blocks from the opening whistle.
Stuttgart are winless in their last three competitive matches. Away to Hamburg, they managed 24 shots without scoring, while against Atlético Madrid, they took an early lead through high pressing before conceding an equaliser right after the break. Against Borussia Mönchengladbach, despite rotating six starters, they opened the scoring within five minutes but fell 2-3. Finishing issues alone do not explain their league slump. Their xGA through 7 league matches stands at 17.00, and even excluding the 4.06 xGA allowed against Bayern Munich, they have conceded more than two expected goals per game across the other six fixtures.
The schedule tilts slightly in Stuttgart's favour here. Their recent league defeats against Hoffenheim, Hamburg, and Gladbach all came within two to three days of Champions League fixtures. This time, they have had more than four days of rest since their last league match, nearly a full day more than Paderborn. Tight turnarounds were not the sole reason for those defeats, as the opponents and starting lineups changed each time. Kicker projects that Undav, Leweling, and El Khannouss, all benched against Gladbach, will return to the starting XI. This remains an unconfirmed lineup.
Both managers are treating the cup seriously. Stuttgart lifted the trophy in 2025, reached the final in 2026, and have won 13 of their last 14 away matches in the competition. Paderborn have also stated their ambition to make a deep cup run. Both clubs face away league fixtures three days later. Paderborn meet fellow relegation battlers Borussia Mönchengladbach, while Stuttgart take on Bayer Leverkusen.
In six competitive meetings between the sides, Paderborn have posted one draw and five losses, with Stuttgart winning all three previous cup encounters. Past head-to-head records feature different managers and squads, making them weak indicators for how this match unfolds. The meeting 18 days ago carries far more weight. Stuttgart controlled the first half, but Paderborn stepped up their attack in the second half and created several chances to level the score. A two-goal victory on the scoreboard does not tell the full story of that match.
2. Matchup Analysis
Stuttgart will likely dominate possession, with Paderborn looking to respond via direct long balls and wide attacks. 18 days ago, Sebastian Hoeness used a three-man defence to counter Paderborn's front two while deploying Karazor in midfield. Stuttgart struck first in the first half, holding Paderborn to just 0.07 xG. In the second half, Paderborn pushed their line higher and sent direct balls forward, forcing Stuttgart to spend extended stretches defending inside their own half. Hoeness admitted after the match that his team surrendered possession too quickly after taking the lead.
Stuttgart's defensive setup could look different this time. Vagnoman, who started on the right side of the back three 18 days ago, is sidelined with an injury. If Hoeness opts for a back four as Kicker anticipates, Assignon will step in at right-back. Assignon struggled with wide duels and defending two-on-one overloads against Gladbach. Directly opposite him, Paderborn left wing-back Obermair beat Vagnoman for a shot 18 days ago and generated first-half danger against Hamburg through set pieces. Obermair delivering crosses or earning free kicks represents Paderborn's clearest route to creating chances. Conversely, if he gets caught upfield after a turnover, right winger Leweling can exploit the space behind him.
In central areas, winning the first ball from Paderborn's direct passes and claiming the second ball will be key. Paderborn often have their goalkeeper bypass the midfield with long balls rather than building out from the back with short passes. This approach could limit Stuttgart's opportunities to force turnovers in the opposition half, as they did against Atlético Madrid. In a back four, Chabot and Jeltsch would handle Paderborn's front two. Some reports suggest Prömel, who offers strong box-to-box runs, could start alongside Stiller instead of Karazor, who handled the physical midfield battles 18 days ago. If Pieringer wins the aerial duel and Paderborn secure the loose second ball, Stuttgart will find themselves forced into defensive mode even with a lead.
Hoeness could still opt for a back three. That system allowed three defenders to marshal Paderborn's two strikers and control the first half 18 days ago. Sticking with a back three would require finding a replacement for Vagnoman's duties on the right. If he chooses a back four and hands El Khannouss a start, Stuttgart would field an extra creator in the attacking midfield band. The tactical shape will dictate both how Stuttgart defend Paderborn's direct deliveries and the numbers they commit forward in attack.
Down the left, Führich and Mittelstädt represent Stuttgart's primary attacking threat. 18 days ago, the opening goal arrived when Chabot headed home a cross swung to the far post from the left, and Führich added the second in the 83rd minute. Paderborn right wing-back Curda must contain this flank while still getting forward to deliver crosses of his own. If he is caught out of position, Führich has the space to attack. If Curda is pinned deep in his defensive third, Paderborn lose the right-sided delivery that created Pieringer's header 18 days ago.
Starting selections and substitutions could also reshape the second half. Paderborn's Batista Meier is out through injury. He served as the catalyst for their late flurry of chances 18 days ago. Vidović is questionable with a foot contusion. Without Vidović, Baack can supply running power in midfield, but Paderborn would lose Vidović's ball progression and incisive passing. Starting Baack and Philippe would put the players who sparked the second-half resurgence against Hamburg on the pitch from the start. That leaves Marino and Tigges as late-game options off the bench to compete for direct balls and provide a physical presence in the box.
For Stuttgart, the finishing of projected starter Undav looms as a swing factor. After scoring 19 league goals last season, he has zero goal contributions through seven league appearances this term. If Stuttgart generate chances but fail to score early, Paderborn can remain comfortable sitting in their defensive shape. If Stuttgart break through first, Paderborn will have to push their defensive line higher and commit their wing-backs forward. At that point, the tie hinges on whether Stuttgart can manage possession to find a second goal, or give the ball away cheaply and concede a stream of crosses and set pieces like they did 18 days ago.
3. Final Verdict and Conclusion
Stuttgart hold the stronger case to open the scoring. They are expected to field close to a first-choice lineup, enter with a rest advantage, and have already unlocked this opponent via Führich and Mittelstädt on the left wing. Taking an early lead is one thing; protecting it over 90 minutes is another. Stuttgart surrendered possession cheaply after going ahead 18 days ago, and their full-strength lineup conceded an equaliser straight after the break against Atlético Madrid.
Paderborn have the tools to test that vulnerability. Long clearances from the goalkeeper bypass Stuttgart's high press, while Obermair's delivery from open play and set pieces can target a right flank missing Vagnoman. Even if Paderborn fall behind, Stuttgart's left-sided deliveries and bench depth will keep Paderborn under pressure. Against Werder Bremen, Paderborn surrendered a two-goal lead when they failed to contain attacks from wide areas.
The market places heavy weight on Stuttgart's squad quality, their tournament track record, and the two-goal margin from 18 days ago. Stuttgart retain the talent edge, but their second goal in that previous meeting arrived immediately after a goal-line clearance denied Paderborn an equaliser. Stuttgart may adjust the tactical shape that provided first-half control in that game, and they will be without their regular right-sided defender. Stuttgart deserve their favourite status on paper, but we do not view their chances of winning in regular time as high as the market suggests.
We see Stuttgart taking the lead and Paderborn finding a way back through a cross from the left or a set piece as the most plausible match script. With single-elimination stakes and crucial weekend league fixtures ahead for both sides, Paderborn will have little incentive to overcommit forward once level. We expect the match to end level after 90 minutes, with the total score remaining at 3 goals or fewer. That assessment would shift if Stuttgart control possession after taking the lead and keep Paderborn pinned inside their own half.
