[2026-27 AFC Champions League] Kashima Antlers vs Pohang Steelers: Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 28, 10:00 UTC
Kashima Antlers host Pohang Steelers at Mercari Stadium on October 28 at 19:00 Korea time in the third round of the 2026-27 AFC Champions League Elite league phase. Kashima have won their first two matches and will look to move closer to qualification at home, while Pohang have lost both and need their first points. We expect Kashima to take the initiative, but the timing of the opening goal and Léo Ceará’s minutes could decide the outcome.
1. Match overview and team form
Kashima manager Toru Oniki called this an important home match in the race to qualify and said his team were targeting all three points (Kashima Antlers official site, October 27). Pohang have no points after losing 1-3 to Beijing Guoan and 0-2 to Johor Darul Ta'zim. The Kyongbuk Ilbo (October 27) calculated that Pohang need at least four wins from their remaining six matches. That is the newspaper’s projection, but it is clear why Pohang are desperate to win away from home here.
League phase after two matches: Kashima Antlers 2 wins, 8 goals scored and 1 conceded / Pohang Steelers 2 losses, 1 goal scored and 5 conceded Last 10 competitive matches: Kashima Antlers 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses / Pohang Steelers 1 win, 5 draws and 4 losses At the relevant venue in their last 20 matches: Kashima Antlers at home, 9 wins in 11 matches, 27 goals scored and 9 conceded / Pohang Steelers away, 3 wins in 12 matches, 14 goals scored and 22 conceded
As of October 25, Kashima were eighth in the 2026-27 J1 League with 25 goals scored and 21 conceded in 12 matches. They have conceded more than in the 2025 J1 League season, when they let in just 31 goals across 38 games. However, 14 of their 21 league goals conceded this season came in six away matches. Looking at the data centre’s last 20 matches, they have conceded nine goals in 11 home games and 19 in nine away games. Their overall league total does not tell the full story of their defensive strength at home.
Their home record has not erased recent concerns. Kashima came from behind in stoppage time to lead against Kyoto Sanga on October 21, then conceded an equaliser two minutes later in a 2-2 draw. On October 24, they went ahead against Kashiwa Reysol at home in the 14th minute but conceded twice before half-time and lost 2-3. In both matches, Kashima had plenty of possession and shots, but their defending in key moments let them down. Kashiwa targeted Kashima’s right flank and scored in the 59th minute after winning the ball by blocking a central passing lane.
Kashima’s two wins in the league phase also need context around the opposition and how the goals came about. Their 7-1 win over Newcastle Jets came against a side who have now lost all three of their matches. Their 1-0 victory away to Công An Hà Nội was decided by an own goal. Pohang’s two defeats came under different circumstances: eight of the 11 players with the most minutes were left out of the starting lineup against Beijing Guoan, while Jeon Min-kwang was sent off late in the first half against Johor Darul Ta'zim. The competition’s goal difference alone is not enough to establish the gap between these teams.
Pohang are ninth in K League 1 after 32 rounds and will play in Final B. They have won only once in their last 10 competitive matches. On October 24 away to Ulsan HD, they led 2-0 at half-time but conceded twice in the second half and drew. Their opener came when Jorge intercepted an opponent’s back pass and played in Wanderson, while their second goal came from a Kento Nishiya corner. It was a reminder that Pohang can turn opponents’ mistakes and set pieces into goals even when they have less possession. The Kyongbuk Ilbo (October 27) reported that the squad travelling to Japan is the same as the one named for K League 1, though the starting lineup has not been confirmed.
One key question for Kashima is whether their leading striker will be fit to play. Léo Ceará has scored 12 goals in 10 J1 League matches this season but missed the Kashiwa Reysol game with a muscle injury. Reports said he had rejoined team training before this match, but neither his place in the starting lineup nor his minutes have been confirmed (Sponichi Annex, October 24 and pre-match reports). In his absence against Kashiwa, Homare Tokuda opened the scoring from a Ryoya Ogawa cross, but only three of Kashima’s 25 shots were on target. At the other end, Kim Tae-hyeon injured the area around his right knee late in the same match and underwent an examination. If he cannot play, Ikuma Sekigawa is a candidate to replace him in central defence.
Both teams played league matches on October 24 and have had three days’ rest. Pohang travelled to Japan after their away match at Ulsan, with no time difference to contend with. Kashima play Cerezo Osaka on October 31, while Pohang face Jeju SK on November 1. Pohang’s 1-0 win in their only known competitive meeting in 2010 offers little tactical guidance, as both teams have changed their managers and squads since then.
2. Tactical matchup
Toru Oniki has kept Kashima in a 4-4-2 in recent league matches, using crosses from both flanks and bringing on substitutes to make an impact. Ryoya Ogawa sends the ball forward from the left, while Rikuto Hirose or Yuta Matsumura do so from the right. If Léo Ceará plays, Yuma Suzuki can drop deeper to link the attack while Ceará finishes in the box. Their goal against Gamba Osaka, when Ceará headed in a Hirose cross, is one example. Homare Tokuda and Čavrić can score if Ceará is unavailable, but the Kashiwa match showed that a high shot count does not necessarily mean a high number of shots on target.
Tae-Ha Park has recently used systems such as 4-3-3 and 3-4-3. Pohang lined up in a 3-4-3 on paper against Ulsan HD, but Ulsan manager Kim Hyeon-seok said they defended in a compact 5-3-2 shape (Goal.com, October 24). If Pohang use the same shape here, Kashima may find more chances to cross from wide areas than to play through the middle. Even if Pohang’s centre-backs clear the first delivery, Kashima can attack the loose ball with another shot or win a corner. With Léo Ceará in the box, there is also a greater chance that the first cross becomes a goal.
If Pohang protect the middle by dropping Wanderson into the defensive line, their starting point for attacks down the left will be deeper after winning the ball. On the other hand, if Kashima’s right-back and midfielder push forward together, Wanderson could receive the ball and run into the space behind them. Kashiwa attacked that flank and turned the game around before half-time. For Pohang to turn an opponent’s mistake into a goal, as they did against Ulsan, they will need to move the ball quickly to Wanderson or Jorge after winning it.
Pohang could also find opportunities by winning the ball in midfield. Kashiwa blocked Kashima’s central passing lanes and scored their third after a turnover. Pohang created a chance in similar fashion when Jorge intercepted a back pass in the first minute against Ulsan. But sustained high pressing carries risks for Pohang. After the Incheon United match, Park said they conceded because the opponent was able to play through their press. Recent performances suggest Pohang may be better off pressing selectively when Kashima’s passing becomes uncertain.
Set pieces offer Pohang a clear route to goal. Kento Nishiya assisted Kim Seung-Ho with a corner against Ulsan, and a long Wanderson throw-in led to the opening goal against FC Seoul. Even if Kashima have more possession, the few corners and throw-ins Pohang win could matter. If Kim Tae-hyeon is unavailable, Kashima will have to defend those situations with a changed central defensive pairing. Pohang may also have a chance to get back into the match from a set piece if Kashima drop deeper after taking the lead.
The managers’ decisions after the break could be important. Oniki’s substitutes were involved in both goals against Kyoto Sanga, and Gaku Shibasaki came off the bench to deliver the low cross that led to the winner against Công An Hà Nội. According to the data centre’s most recent figures as of October 9, Pohang conceded 16 of their 28 goals in their last 20 matches between the 61st and 90th minutes. They also failed to protect a two-goal half-time lead against Ulsan. If the match is still level late on and Pohang add attackers in search of a win, Kashima’s substitutes could target the space out wide behind the advanced wing-backs.
Kashima cannot assume that an opening goal will be enough to see out the match. They conceded an equaliser soon after taking the lead against Kyoto Sanga and lost to Kashiwa despite scoring first. If Léo Ceará starts and plays for a long spell, Kashima’s crosses will be a threat from the opening stages. If he plays only briefly or comes off the bench, Pohang are more likely to hold out in a compact shape through the first half. If Pohang score first, Kashima may push their full-backs forward in search of an equaliser, leaving more room for Pohang to counter down the left.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We make Kashima Antlers favourites, though we expect a narrow win and a relatively low-scoring game. If Pohang pack the middle, Kashima will keep attacking from the flanks, but turning the first cross into a goal may be difficult. Léo Ceará is returning from a muscle injury, so his start and playing time remain uncertain. We lean towards Pohang holding firm in the first half before Kashima look for a winner after the break through their substitutes and wide attacks.
Pohang need a win. If the match remains level beyond the 70th minute, they may add attackers, giving Kashima a chance to exploit the space on the sides of their defensive line. Pohang’s recent difficulty protecting leads in the second half shows the risk involved. Kashima have players such as Gaku Shibasaki and Čavrić who have contributed in attack as substitutes, so they can change the game after the break even if they do not score in the first half. Once ahead, though, they will need to deal with Pohang’s corners and long throw-ins.
The market also favours a home win, citing Kashima’s home record and Pohang’s recent struggles. The main question is whether the margin will be large. Kashima’s eight goals in the competition include seven against Newcastle Jets, while Pohang’s two defeats came in a match where many regulars were rested and another where they had a player sent off. Léo Ceará’s minutes are also unknown. We therefore see a one-goal Kashima win, with the home side edging ahead in the second half and holding on. If Léo Ceará starts and plays at least 60 minutes, then scores early, Pohang will have to push forward sooner, which could lead to a wider margin and more goals overall.
