[2026-27 English League Cup] Liverpool vs Chelsea preview and analysis Kick-off: October 28 at 20:00 UTC
Liverpool and Chelsea meet at Anfield in the fourth round of the English League Cup. Both sides are likely to rotate ahead of their next league fixtures, making this a one-off knockout tie. Liverpool have won their last four competitive matches, though they have been conceding more often, while Chelsea travel to Anfield without two key attackers.
1. Match overview and team form
Liverpool manager Andoni Iraola has said there will be changes to the starting XI, while making clear that his side want to win. Liverpool face Arsenal in a top-of-the-table league clash on November 2, then take on Fenerbahçe on November 5. As of October 25, Liverpool had played five matches in the previous 14 days, while Chelsea, without European fixtures, had played two. Chelsea have had more time to recover, but their next match, against Manchester United, comes less than three days after this one. Both managers have reasons to rotate.
After eight league matches, Liverpool sit fourth on 15 points and Chelsea are fifth on 13. Liverpool have scored 11 and conceded 8 in the league, while Chelsea have scored 17 and conceded 15. Chelsea’s league matches have produced more goals, but recent form in all competitions tells a different story. Across their last five competitive matches, according to the data centre, Liverpool have scored 14 and conceded 10. Chelsea have managed 9 goals and conceded 8 over the same span, while their expected goals have fallen from 11.41 across the previous five matches to 4.81 in the last five.
Key absentees Attack and midfield: Liverpool will be without Ekitike, Szoboszlai is a doubt, and Wirtz could feature after an ankle injury. Chelsea will miss Palmer through suspension and João Pedro with a thigh injury. Defence and goal: Liverpool will be without Bradley and Frimpong, while Muñoz is a doubt. Reece James and Martínez are out for Chelsea, with Penders likely to start.
Liverpool have scored 14 goals in four matches since losing 3-0 to Manchester City. Barcola hit a hat-trick against LASK, while Ngumoha’s wide attacking and a positional change by Iraola helped turn the Villarreal match around. Against Brighton, Liverpool scored twice early, then let the opposition have possession and looked to counter. The goals have come in different ways during this run. There have also been defensive concerns: Liverpool conceded late after changing centre-backs against LASK, and struggled to manage the game after taking the lead against Brentford. With a different starting defensive combination likely here, those issues deserve another look.
Chelsea scored five against Bournemouth, but did so from six shots on target, with an expected goals figure of 1.10. They then beat Everton 2-0 away, limiting the hosts to 0.45 expected goals, though starting goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez injured his jaw in that match. In their most recent game, against Tottenham, Chelsea lost 2-0 with an expected goals figure of 0.43 after pushing Rogers forward in João Pedro’s absence. Palmer was also sent off in that match and is unavailable here. Chelsea have failed to score in both league games this season without João Pedro. Still, they scored eight goals in two League Cup matches with Danny Welbeck starting, so his absence alone does not mean they will draw a blank.
Iraola’s Liverpool usually start in a 4-2-3-1, using their wide attackers in one-on-ones and runners from the second line. They have also taken off a defender and added an attacker when chasing a game. Xabi Alonso’s Chelsea generally use a 3-4-2-1, but have switched to a back four when they need to chase a result. Welbeck is likely to lead the line for Chelsea, with Penders expected to replace Martínez in goal. Liverpool’s balance in attack and defence will depend on who starts at right-back and in attacking midfield.
Chelsea have recorded two wins and a draw in their last three meetings with Liverpool, but both teams have changed managers since those matches. Last season, goals in their head-to-head fixtures came from set pieces, crosses into the six-yard box and shots after losing possession. Those situations are worth keeping in mind, although Palmer and João Pedro, who were involved in Chelsea’s attacks at the time, are unavailable. If the score is level after 90 minutes, the tie goes to penalties, with no extra time, and VAR will not be used. The forecast calls for no rain and light winds at Anfield around kick-off, so there is no reason to favour either side on weather grounds.
2. Matchup analysis
Liverpool’s attack down the left against Chelsea’s right-side defence is the key matchup. If Barcola or Gakpo drives forward on that flank, they will face Chelsea’s right wing-back with Reece James out. Gakpo has scored in all six League Cup matches he has played at Anfield for Liverpool, while Barcola scored three against LASK. If Chelsea push their wing-back forward, the outside centre-back will need to cover behind him. If the wing-back stays deep to form a back five, Liverpool will have more defenders to beat. In that case, they will need accuracy in the box after crosses as well as direct runs down the flank. There is no direct example this season of Liverpool attacking against a back three like Chelsea’s, so we cannot assume they will have the edge out wide.
Chelsea’s defence in front of goal will be tested at set pieces. They conceded from a Brentford corner, and a mistake by Penders while dealing with a corner against Tottenham led to an own goal. Sports Illustrated reports that Chelsea have conceded 14 goals from set pieces inside their own six-yard box since the start of last season. Liverpool have Araujo, who scored a header against Villarreal, as well as Van Dijk and Jaka. Szoboszlai is a doubt, so Liverpool may use a different set-piece taker, but they still have players who can compete in the air. Penders’ mistake in his last match does not mean the same thing will happen again. The key will be how Chelsea mark opponents in the box and how Penders deals with crosses.
For Chelsea to hit back, Welbeck needs to hold the ball up at the top of the pitch and link with the second line. Against Tottenham, with João Pedro out, Rogers was pushed forward but Chelsea did not create enough chances in the box. If Welbeck can receive the ball under pressure from the centre-backs, he can give Estêvão or Quenda time to make forward runs. They have played 197 and 100 minutes respectively this season, so there is little evidence to judge how well they will perform that role against this opponent. If Welbeck cannot hold the ball up, Chelsea could have possession without creating clear shots, as they did against Brentford.
Chelsea’s left could also trouble Liverpool. Hato got close to the goal line against Everton and set up Pedro Neto’s goal. At right-back, Liverpool could turn to one of Araujo, Gomez or Gravenberch in place of Bradley and Frimpong. Araujo started at right-back against Brighton. If he plays there again, he can do the defensive work, but Liverpool may rely more on Ngumoha’s individual dribbling to attack down that side. Any chances Chelsea create there still need to be turned into shots in the box by Welbeck and the second-line runners.
The managers’ choices after the first goal could shape the match. If Liverpool go ahead, they could give up possession and counter, as they did against Brighton. If Chelsea push forward in pursuit of an equaliser, space could open behind their defence for Liverpool’s wide attackers. When Chelsea fell behind against Brentford, Alonso switched to a back four and added attackers, but they conceded again on the counter. If Chelsea score first, Iraola could add attackers as he did against Villarreal. That could mean a second-half appearance for Isak or Wirtz if Liverpool rest either of them from the start. Chelsea would then have to protect their lead against Liverpool’s attacks down the flanks and from set pieces.
Liverpool have their own vulnerable spell to watch. Against LASK, they were well ahead, changed both centre-backs and then conceded twice late on. They also need to manage their players’ fitness with Arsenal coming up. Iraola could make changes from the start this time, though, so we cannot assume the same sequence of substitutions as against LASK. Chelsea could still score from a Liverpool mistake in build-up or a direct free kick. If the score is level late in the 90 minutes, both teams may have reason to avoid taking unnecessary risks and let the tie go to penalties.
3. Final view and conclusion
We expect Liverpool to score first, then add another as Chelsea push forward in pursuit, with a win by at least two goals the more likely outcome. Even with changes to the starting XI, Liverpool can use the width and attacking threat of Gakpo, Barcola and Ngumoha, as well as the aerial presence of Araujo, Van Dijk and Jaka. Without Palmer and João Pedro, Chelsea will have to rely on Welbeck’s link-up play and a second line with limited playing time. If Chelsea add attackers to chase the game, Liverpool should also find space to counter. Chelsea’s scoring routes look more dependent on set pieces or chances after Liverpool lose possession, so we expect a low-scoring match overall.
The market has shifted towards Liverpool since news emerged of Chelsea’s key absences, but it remains cautious about a big Liverpool win. The difference lies in the attacking options each side can still call on after rotating. Liverpool can repeatedly test Chelsea in the box with wide attacks and set pieces, while there is little evidence that Chelsea can build attacks to match that when chasing the game after conceding. This outlook could change if Chelsea use Welbeck to move the ball forward and score first against Liverpool’s reshuffled defence, giving Chelsea counter-attacking chances while Liverpool add more attackers.
